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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$288,709,116 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎39.0-40.0%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸34.0-37.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸34.0-35.0%$773,367

36.5%

1.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.0-14.0%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$773,367

12.5%

0.5%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-6.0%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$773,367

5.3%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.5-4.8%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$773,367

4.9%

-0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.5-3.7%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$773,367

4.2%

+0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.6%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$773,367

4.2%

0.1%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-1.9%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$773,367

4.0%

-0.3%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-2.9%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$773,367

3.9%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.6%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$13,637,531
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$773,367

3.1%

+0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,637,531

1.1%

-0.1%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,637,531

1.0%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$13,637,531

0.4%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$13,637,531

0.3%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$13,637,531

0.3%

-0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$274,305,513
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$13,637,531

0.3%

+0.0%

17.9%
GOP Nomination 2028Republican nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$81,062,179 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎59.0-60.0%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$4,450,990
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$339,093

55.5%

0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.7-8.8%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$4,450,990
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$339,093

8.6%

0.4%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.1-5.4%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$4,450,990
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$339,093

5.6%

-0.2%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-2.9%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$4,450,990
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$339,093

3.1%

-0.4%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$4,450,990
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$339,093

2.3%

0.2%
Kemp details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-1.0%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$339,093

2.1%

0.5%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$4,450,990

1.9%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$339,093

1.6%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.3%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.2%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.1%

+0.0%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.1%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.1%

0.1%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.0%

+0.0%
Abbott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.0%

+0.0%
Gaetz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.0%

+0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,450,990

1.0%

+0.0%
Musk details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$4,450,990

0.6%

+0.0%
Britt details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$76,276,436
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$4,450,990

0.3%

+0.0%

8.7%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$114,071,235 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎28.0-29.0%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧26.7-27.0%$678,181
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$384,302
Smarkets 🇬🇧26.7-28.2%$116,944

28.8%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.0-21.0%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧16.7-16.9%$678,181
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-26.0%$384,302
Smarkets 🇬🇧15.2-17.2%$116,944

20.0%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.0-9.0%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-7.1%$678,181
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-8.0%$384,302
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-7.7%$116,944

7.1%

0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.1-5.3%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-4.0%$678,181
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$384,302

4.5%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-2.8%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.6%$678,181
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$384,302
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$116,944

3.1%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-1.9%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.6%$678,181
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$384,302
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$116,944

2.5%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.0%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$678,181
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$384,302
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$116,944

2.2%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.3%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$116,944

2.0%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$678,181
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$384,302
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$116,944

1.6%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.5%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.5%$116,944

1.6%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.5%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.0%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$116,944

1.5%

-0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.7%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$116,944

1.0%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.5%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$116,944

0.7%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$116,944

0.7%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$116,944

0.7%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$116,944

0.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$110,789,746
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$2,102,986
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.4%$116,944

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.5%$116,944

0.4%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$116,944

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$116,944

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$116,944

0.3%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$116,944

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$116,944

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$678,181
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$116,944

0.1%

-0.0%

18.9%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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