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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$11,036,041 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸65.0-67.0%$7,766,772
Polymarket 🌎68.0-69.0%$3,271,021

67.3%

1.3%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸33.0-35.0%$7,766,772
Polymarket 🌎31.0-32.0%$3,271,021

32.8%

-1.3%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$361,134 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$210,472
Betfair 🇬🇧54.9-55.6%$148,743
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.0-56.5%$1,919

54.7%

-0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$210,472
Betfair 🇬🇧42.4-43.9%$148,743
Smarkets 🇬🇧41.7-45.0%$1,919

44.3%

0.2%

1.0%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$204,006,678 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎26.0-27.0%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧25.0-25.6%$898,215
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$687,803
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.0-25.6%$157,928

26.6%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.0-19.0%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$898,215
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$687,803
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$157,928

19.8%

0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.4-9.6%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧7.4-7.7%$898,215
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$687,803

9.0%

-0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.0-7.0%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-6.5%$898,215
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$687,803
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-8.3%$157,928

6.6%

-0.2%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.4-3.5%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.8%$898,215
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$687,803
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$157,928

3.2%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.4%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$898,215
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$687,803
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$157,928

2.7%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$898,215
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$687,803
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$157,928

2.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$157,928

1.9%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.3%$898,215
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$687,803
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$157,928

1.9%

0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.2%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$157,928

1.6%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-1.8%$157,928

1.6%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.2%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$157,928

1.1%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.4%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$157,928

0.8%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.9%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$157,928

0.7%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$157,928

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$157,928

0.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$197,145,990
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,138,561
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.4%$157,928

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$157,928

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$157,928

0.3%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$157,928

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$157,928

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$157,928

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$157,928

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$898,215
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$157,928

0.1%

-0.0%

16.7%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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