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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$62,489,960 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎35.0-36.0%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$479,188

32.8%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎10.0-11.0%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$479,188

11.2%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$479,188

6.8%

-0.3%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.4-4.7%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$479,188

5.5%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-3.9%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$479,188

4.9%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-4.0%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$479,188

4.6%

+0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-3.8%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$479,188

4.6%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-3.9%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$479,188

4.0%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$11,160,534
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$479,188

3.2%

-0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$11,160,534

1.2%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$11,160,534

1.0%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,160,534

0.4%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.9%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,160,534

0.4%

-0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,160,534

0.3%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$50,850,446
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,160,534

0.3%

+0.0%

18.7%
GOP Nomination 2028Republican nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$22,327,691 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎52.0-53.0%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸52.0-53.0%$3,406,508
PredictIt 🇺🇸54.0-55.0%$208,970

53.2%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.3-7.5%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$3,406,508
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$208,970

7.5%

0.2%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.2-3.4%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,406,508
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$208,970

4.4%

-0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.5-3.7%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,406,508
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$208,970

4.2%

+0.0%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,406,508
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$208,970

3.3%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.5%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,406,508

2.4%

-0.0%
Kemp details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.8%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$208,970

1.6%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$208,970

1.6%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.6%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.5%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.4%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.4%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.2%

0.1%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.1%

0.1%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.1%

0.1%
Abbott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.1%

0.1%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.1%

0.1%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.1%

0.1%
Gaetz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,406,508

1.0%

+0.0%
Musk details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,406,508

0.3%

+0.0%
Britt details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$18,712,213
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,406,508

0.3%

+0.0%

10.8%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$26,064,937 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎26.0-27.0%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸31.0-33.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧29.0-29.4%$630,139
PredictIt 🇺🇸33.0-34.0%$274,955
Smarkets 🇬🇧27.8-30.8%$95,476

30.1%

0.8%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.0-21.0%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸20.0-22.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧14.7-15.2%$630,139
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$274,955
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.5-15.6%$95,476

18.9%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.0-7.0%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧5.0-5.3%$630,139
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$274,955
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-5.6%$95,476

6.2%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-5.0%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.8%$630,139
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$274,955

3.7%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-2.8%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$630,139
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$274,955
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.5%$95,476

3.3%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.5%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.2%$630,139
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$274,955
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$95,476

2.5%

-0.2%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.8%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$630,139
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$274,955
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.6%$95,476

2.4%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$95,476

2.3%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.3%$630,139
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$274,955
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.7%$95,476

2.1%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$95,476

1.8%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.3%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.4%$95,476

1.4%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.8%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$95,476

1.0%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$95,476

0.9%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.2%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.3%$95,476

0.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$95,476

0.7%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$95,476

0.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$23,679,567
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,384,659
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$95,476

0.4%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$95,476

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$95,476

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$95,476

0.3%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$95,476

0.3%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.3%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$95,476

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$95,476

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$630,139
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$95,476

0.2%

+0.0%

18.8%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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