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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024
Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$18,024,747 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
FTX 🌎40.2-40.8%$15,130,312$540,304
Smarkets 🇬🇧19.6-20.0%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧19.6-20.0%$1,651,107$275,445
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$66,186$3,091

29.1%

-0.9%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.5-18.2%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧17.5-17.9%$1,651,107$275,445
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$66,186$3,091

17.8%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-17.9%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧17.2-17.9%$1,651,107$275,445
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$66,186$3,091

17.6%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-5.7%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.7%$1,651,107$275,445
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$66,186$3,091

5.6%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧4.2-5.3%$1,651,107$275,445

4.8%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-3.6%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.6%$1,651,107$275,445

3.5%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.3%$1,651,107$275,445

3.1%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.8%$1,651,107$275,445

2.6%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.6%$1,651,107$275,445

2.2%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.0%$1,651,107$275,445

1.4%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$1,651,107$275,445

1.2%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.5%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.5%$1,651,107$275,445

1.2%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.2%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$1,651,107$275,445

1.0%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.3%$1,651,107$275,445

0.8%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.4%$1,651,107$275,445

0.7%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$1,651,107$275,445

0.5%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,651,107$275,445

0.4%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,651,107$275,445

0.4%

-0.1%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.8%$1,651,107$275,445

0.4%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,651,107$275,445

0.4%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,651,107$275,445

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,651,107$275,445

0.2%

-0.0%

4.9%




Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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