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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$602,531,795 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.6-18.7%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧16.9-17.5%$1,197,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-25.0%$1,120,193
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.9-17.5%$215,740

18.9%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.6-16.7%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.2%$1,197,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$1,120,193
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.5-18.9%$215,740

17.9%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.2-13.3%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-10.2%$1,197,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸15.0-17.0%$1,120,193

14.7%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.5-5.6%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.1-5.3%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-5.6%$1,197,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-10.0%$1,120,193
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.7%$215,740

6.2%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-5.3%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.5-4.7%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$1,197,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$1,120,193
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$215,740

4.0%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.8%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-3.9%$215,740

3.6%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-4.0%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-4.2%$215,740

3.1%

0.5%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.0-3.1%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$1,197,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,120,193
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$215,740

3.0%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-3.1%$1,197,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,120,193
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.4%$215,740

2.9%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.6%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.0%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$215,740

2.3%

-0.3%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$1,197,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$1,120,193
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$215,740

1.8%

0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-1.3%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.5%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$215,740

1.7%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$215,740

0.9%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$215,740

0.5%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$215,740

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$215,740

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$579,237,686
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$20,761,987
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$215,740

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$215,740

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$215,740

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,740

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,740

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,740

0.1%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,740

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,197,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,740

0.1%

-0.0%

15.8%


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