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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$681,494,918 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎19.9-20.0%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧16.7-17.5%$1,309,797
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-18.2%$233,032

18.8%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.5-13.6%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-10.9%$1,309,797
PredictIt 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$1,207,156

14.7%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎11.7-11.8%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-13.2%$1,309,797
PredictIt 🇺🇸16.0-18.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.8-13.9%$233,032

13.5%

0.4%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.4-7.5%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.5-8.8%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.7%$1,309,797
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-11.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-10.2%$233,032

8.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.2%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.4-4.6%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$1,309,797
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.5%$233,032

3.6%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.4%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.0%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$1,309,797
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-2.9%$233,032

3.1%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.3%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$233,032

3.1%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-2.8%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.1%$1,309,797
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$233,032

2.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.2-2.5%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-3.3%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$233,032

2.3%

0.2%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.1%$233,032

1.9%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.4%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.5%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$233,032

1.3%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.7%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.8%$1,309,797
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$233,032

1.3%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.3%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$233,032

1.0%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$233,032

0.5%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$233,032

0.5%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$652,866,265
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.7%$25,879,405
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$233,032

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$233,032

0.4%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.5%$233,032

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$233,032

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$233,032

0.2%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$233,032

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$233,032

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$233,032

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,309,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$233,032

0.1%

-0.0%

21.1%


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