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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$658,701,070 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.2-18.3%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧14.7-15.6%$1,261,190
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$1,183,638
Smarkets 🇬🇧14.7-16.1%$226,630

17.6%

0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.0-16.1%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧14.7-15.6%$1,261,190
PredictIt 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$1,183,638
Smarkets 🇬🇧14.7-16.7%$226,630

15.6%

0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎15.5-15.6%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧11.9-12.5%$1,261,190
PredictIt 🇺🇸16.0-18.0%$1,183,638

15.6%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.5-5.6%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.3-6.4%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧5.9-6.5%$1,261,190
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$1,183,638
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.7%$226,630

6.8%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-5.1%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-5.1%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.6%$1,261,190
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$1,183,638
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.6%$226,630

4.1%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.8%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.7%$226,630

3.4%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-3.1%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.3%$1,261,190
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,183,638
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.6%$226,630

3.1%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-2.9%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.2%$1,261,190
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,183,638
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$226,630

2.8%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$226,630

2.4%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.6%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$226,630

1.8%

0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.6%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$1,261,190
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,183,638
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.0%$226,630

1.4%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.4%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$226,630

1.2%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.4%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.0%$226,630

1.0%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$226,630

0.5%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$226,630

0.5%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.5%$226,630

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$632,235,548
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$23,799,964
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$226,630

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$226,630

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$226,630

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$226,630

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$226,630

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$226,630

0.1%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$226,630

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,261,190
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$226,630

0.1%

-0.0%

20.5%


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