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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$557,513,547 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.7-18.8%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.2%$1,150,590
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$1,015,343
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$208,440

19.6%

0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.6-16.7%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧18.5-19.2%$1,150,590
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$1,015,343
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.5-20.0%$208,440

19.2%

0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎11.4-11.6%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧8.0-8.7%$1,150,590
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-15.0%$1,015,343

12.1%

1.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.6-6.7%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.4-5.5%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧3.8-5.4%$1,150,590
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,015,343
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-6.7%$208,440

6.2%

0.4%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.4-4.5%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.1-3.4%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$1,150,590
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,015,343
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$208,440

3.3%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.3%$208,440

3.0%

-0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.1%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-3.2%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$1,150,590
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,015,343
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$208,440

2.9%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.3-2.4%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$1,150,590
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,015,343
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$208,440

2.5%

-0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-0.9%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$1,150,590
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,015,343
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$208,440

1.8%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.6-1.7%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$208,440

1.7%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.8%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-1.8%$208,440

1.5%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.6%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$208,440

1.0%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$208,440

0.9%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$208,440

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$208,440

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$208,440

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$208,440

0.4%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$538,366,862
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$16,775,929
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$208,440

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$208,440

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,150,590
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.1%

+0.0%

21.1%


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