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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2028Republican nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$524,470,718 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎36.5-36.7%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸37.2-37.3%$19,306,454
PredictIt 🇺🇸39.0-40.0%$997,679
Betfair 🇬🇧38.2-38.5%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧38.2-38.5%$1,765

38.0%

7.7%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.6-21.7%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸24.6-24.7%$19,306,454
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-31.0%$997,679
Betfair 🇬🇧23.8-26.0%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.0-26.0%$1,765

25.2%

3.2%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-2.7%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.6-3.7%$19,306,454
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$997,679
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-4.0%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-2.9%$1,765

3.6%

-0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.7%$19,306,454
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$997,679

3.3%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.3-2.4%$19,306,454
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-6.1%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.1%$1,765

2.5%

0.1%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.7-1.8%$19,306,454
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$997,679
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-11.6%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$1,765

1.6%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.2%$19,306,454
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$997,679
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.0%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$1,765

1.1%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-1.0%$19,306,454
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-25.0%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$1,765

1.1%

0.1%
Kemp details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$19,306,454
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$997,679
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$1,765

0.9%

-0.1%
Musk details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$19,306,454

0.6%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$19,306,454
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-99.0%$51,914

0.5%

-0.0%
Britt details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$19,306,454

0.5%

+0.0%
Gaetz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.8%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$19,306,454

0.5%

+0.0%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$19,306,454

0.5%

+0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$19,306,454

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$19,306,454
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$1,765

0.4%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$19,306,454
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,765

0.4%

-0.0%
Abbott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$19,306,454
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$1,765

0.4%

-0.0%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$504,121,880
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$19,306,454
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$51,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,765

0.3%

+0.0%

18.1%


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