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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2028Republican nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$640,609,017 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎36.6-36.7%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸34.0-35.0%$25,054,409
PredictIt 🇺🇸38.0-39.0%$1,183,775
Betfair 🇬🇧38.5-41.3%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧39.1-41.3%$2,528

37.9%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎25.3-25.4%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸30.0-31.0%$25,054,409
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$1,183,775
Betfair 🇬🇧21.3-22.7%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.3-22.7%$2,528

25.5%

0.4%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-3.7%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.8%$25,054,409
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$1,183,775
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-10.0%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-4.2%$2,528

4.8%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.8-4.9%$25,054,409
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-21.3%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.1-6.3%$2,528

3.5%

-0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.3-3.5%$25,054,409
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,183,775

3.2%

-0.1%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.5-1.6%$25,054,409
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,183,775
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$2,528

1.1%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-0.9%$25,054,409
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,183,775
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.0%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$2,528

1.0%

+0.0%
Kemp details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-0.9%$25,054,409
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,183,775
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$2,528

0.9%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$25,054,409
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-97.1%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$2,528

0.9%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$25,054,409
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-99.0%$58,101

0.6%

+0.0%
Britt details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$25,054,409

0.5%

-0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$25,054,409

0.5%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$25,054,409
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$2,528

0.5%

+0.0%
Gaetz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$25,054,409

0.4%

+0.0%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$25,054,409

0.4%

+0.0%
Musk details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-0.1%$25,054,409

0.4%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$25,054,409
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$2,528

0.4%

-0.0%
Abbott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$25,054,409
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$2,528

0.4%

-0.0%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$614,322,191
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$25,054,409
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$58,101
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$2,528

0.3%

+0.0%

16.5%


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