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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2028Republican nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$788,319,328 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎30.7-30.8%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸33.0-34.0%$53,047,381
PredictIt 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$1,695,733
Betfair 🇬🇧27.8-29.0%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧27.8-29.0%$5,908

30.5%

-0.4%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.1-18.2%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$53,047,381
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$1,695,733
Betfair 🇬🇧18.2-21.7%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧19.2-20.4%$5,908

19.0%

-0.2%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎15.9-16.0%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$53,047,381
PredictIt 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$1,695,733
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-18.5%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.5-16.1%$5,908

15.6%

2.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-2.9%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$53,047,381
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,695,733
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-4.0%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-3.9%$5,908

3.5%

-0.0%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.7%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$53,047,381
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,695,733
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-2.9%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.9%$5,908

2.5%

-0.0%
Kemp details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-3.0%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.2-2.4%$53,047,381
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,695,733
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-6.1%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.8%$5,908

2.4%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.2%$53,047,381
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$5,908

1.9%

+0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.6-1.8%$53,047,381
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,695,733

1.7%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.2%$53,047,381
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-3.3%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.6%$5,908

1.2%

-0.2%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-0.9%$53,047,381
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.7%$5,908

0.9%

-0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$53,047,381

0.8%

+0.0%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.6-0.7%$53,047,381
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-8.3%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.7%$5,908

0.7%

-0.0%
Abbott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.2%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$53,047,381
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.2%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$5,908

0.5%

+0.0%
Britt details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$53,047,381

0.4%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.6%$53,047,381
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-7.4%$100,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$5,908

0.3%

+0.0%
Musk details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$53,047,381

0.2%

+0.0%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.2%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$53,047,381

0.2%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.2%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$53,047,381
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-99.0%$100,157

0.1%

+0.0%
Gaetz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$733,470,539
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-0.1%$53,047,381

0.0%

+0.0%

17.8%


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