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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,196,342,602 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.4-24.5%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧23.8-29.4%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧23.8-29.4%$4,996

25.1%

-0.5%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.5-8.6%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧10.4-11.1%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.6-12.2%$4,996

10.9%

-0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.5-8.6%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.4-9.6%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-6.7%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-6.3%$4,996

7.9%

-0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.2-4.3%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.6-4.7%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-11.6%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-11.6%$4,996

6.1%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.9-5.0%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.6-4.7%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-5.9%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.3-5.9%$4,996

4.5%

-1.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-2.7%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.5-3.8%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-6.5%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-5.6%$4,996

4.1%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.1%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-3.3%$4,996

1.8%

-0.1%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.1-2.5%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-20.0%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-3.5%$4,996

1.8%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.2-1.3%$47,790,067
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,697,903
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.6%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.6%$4,996

1.7%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.4%$47,790,067
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-9.1%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-9.1%$4,996

0.9%

-0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$47,790,067

0.9%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$47,790,067

0.6%

-0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$47,790,067

0.6%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$47,790,067

0.5%

-0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,145,792,134
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-0.1%$47,790,067
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$60,007
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$4,996

0.3%

-0.0%

32.2%


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