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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,241,897,366 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎25.1-25.2%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧25.3-27.4%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.3-27.4%$7,619

24.6%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.2-9.3%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.4-9.8%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧10.9-11.9%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.9-12.8%$7,619

11.1%

-0.3%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.7-7.8%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸7.8-8.0%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧5.9-6.3%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.3%$7,619

7.5%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.4-4.5%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.3-5.4%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-11.9%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.7-11.6%$7,619

6.7%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.1-5.2%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.8%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-5.0%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-5.0%$7,619

4.9%

0.8%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-2.9%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.7-3.9%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.8%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.9%$7,619

4.0%

-0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.9-4.5%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-2.4%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.4%$7,619

2.6%

0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-1.1%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-4.2%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.3%$7,619

2.0%

-0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.4-2.5%$51,847,069
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,815,200
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.8%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.8%$7,619

2.0%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.4%$51,847,069
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-4.0%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-3.7%$7,619

1.9%

-0.1%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.9-1.1%$51,847,069

1.0%

-0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$51,847,069

0.6%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$51,847,069

0.6%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$51,847,069

0.6%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,187,163,598
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-0.2%$51,847,069
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$65,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$7,619

0.3%

-0.0%

29.7%


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