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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$513,594,735 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎34.0-35.0%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸33.0-34.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸33.0-34.0%$1,405,623

33.8%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎10.0-11.0%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$1,405,623

10.5%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.6-6.8%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$1,405,623

6.9%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.2%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$1,405,623

5.4%

0.1%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.3-3.4%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$1,405,623

5.1%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-5.0%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$1,405,623

4.8%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.9-3.1%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$1,405,623

4.0%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.1%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,405,623

3.4%

+0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$19,705,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,405,623

3.1%

-0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$19,705,798

1.0%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$19,705,798

0.5%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$19,705,798

0.4%

+0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$19,705,798

0.3%

-0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$19,705,798

0.3%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$492,486,909
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$19,705,798

0.2%

+0.0%

20.2%


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