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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,186,560,210 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.0-24.1%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧28.2-30.8%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧28.2-30.8%$4,996

26.6%

-0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.2-8.3%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.1-8.2%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧10.4-11.1%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.4-11.9%$4,996

10.2%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.9-9.0%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.1-9.2%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-10.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-6.9%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.7-6.7%$4,996

7.9%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.2-4.3%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.6-4.7%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-11.6%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.3-5.9%$4,996

5.5%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.7-4.8%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.4-4.6%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-5.9%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-5.9%$4,996

4.3%

-0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-2.9%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.7-3.9%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-6.5%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-5.6%$4,996

4.2%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.5-2.6%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.1%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-3.3%$4,996

2.0%

-0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-20.0%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-3.5%$4,996

1.9%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.4%$46,955,481
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,682,130
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.6%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.9%$4,996

1.8%

-0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$46,955,481

0.9%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.5%$46,955,481
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-9.5%$4,996

0.8%

-0.2%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$46,955,481

0.7%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$46,955,481

0.6%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$46,955,481

0.5%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,136,861,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$46,955,481
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$58,696
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$4,996

0.4%

+0.0%

31.8%


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