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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,318,193,973 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎19.8-19.9%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧21.7-23.8%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$7,898

20.8%

-0.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.4-14.5%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧16.1-23.8%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.2-21.7%$7,898

16.3%

1.3%
Ossoff details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.3-14.4%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧13.9-15.2%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.9-15.2%$7,898

15.1%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.9-7.0%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸7.4-7.9%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧3.6-5.9%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.9%$7,898

7.0%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.1-5.2%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.1-5.2%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-6.7%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.7%$7,898

5.5%

+0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.9-4.0%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-4.3%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-4.0%$7,898

3.5%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.9-5.0%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.5-4.6%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.3%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-4.3%$7,898

3.2%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-1.2%$69,850,973
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-9.1%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.9%$7,898

2.3%

-0.1%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.2-2.3%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$7,898

2.1%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-0.9%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-3.1%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-3.3%$7,898

2.0%

-0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.7%$69,850,973
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,989,640
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-2.1%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.1%$7,898

1.8%

+0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-1.0%$69,850,973

0.8%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$69,850,973

0.4%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.3%$69,850,973

0.4%

-0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$69,850,973

0.3%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$1,245,270,187
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$69,850,973
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$76,518
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$7,898

0.2%

+0.0%

18.3%


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