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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$744,310,973 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎26.4-26.5%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-31.0%$1,974,753

27.7%

-0.5%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.6-9.8%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$1,974,753

10.2%

0.5%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.2-6.3%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$1,974,753

8.8%

0.7%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-4.1%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$1,974,753

6.0%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.5-3.7%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$1,974,753

4.5%

+0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.6%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$1,974,753

4.2%

-0.1%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.1%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,974,753

3.7%

-0.3%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.1%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,974,753

3.0%

-0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$27,105,491
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,974,753

2.6%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$27,105,491

1.2%

-0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$27,105,491

0.9%

0.3%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$27,105,491

0.7%

+0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$27,105,491

0.6%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$27,105,491

0.6%

0.1%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$715,233,581
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$27,105,491

0.4%

+0.0%

25.1%


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