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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,274,654,813 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.8-20.9%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧25.0-26.7%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.0-26.7%$7,656

23.7%

0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.2-9.3%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧11.9-14.3%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.9-16.1%$7,656

11.7%

0.3%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.6-6.7%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.1-8.2%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-6.1%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-5.7%$7,656

7.3%

0.2%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.2-4.3%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.1-5.2%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-11.1%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-9.5%$7,656

6.2%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.4%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.9-5.0%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.3%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-4.3%$7,656

3.4%

-0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.3-3.4%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-3.8%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-3.9%$7,656

3.2%

-0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.6-3.7%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-2.2%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.2%$7,656

2.3%

+0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-2.1%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.8%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$7,656

2.2%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-1.0%$56,870,343
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,882,759
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-3.4%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-3.5%$7,656

1.9%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.2%$56,870,343
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.6%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-3.6%$7,656

1.2%

-0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.9%$56,870,343

0.9%

-0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.8%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.8%$56,870,343

0.7%

0.1%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$56,870,343

0.7%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$56,870,343

0.4%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,214,827,225
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$56,870,343
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$68,799
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$7,656

0.3%

+0.0%

34.1%


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