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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,304,127,723 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.1-20.2%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-21.0%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧20.8-22.7%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-22.7%$7,804

21.2%

-0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.4-14.5%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-13.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-16.1%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.2-17.2%$7,804

14.3%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.6-6.7%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.0-8.3%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-5.9%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.3-5.9%$7,804

7.3%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-5.1%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-5.1%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-7.1%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-7.1%$7,804

5.7%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-5.3%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.8%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.8%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-4.8%$7,804

4.1%

-0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.6-3.8%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-3.4%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.5%$7,804

3.3%

+0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.7%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$7,804

2.2%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.7%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-2.1%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.1%$7,804

1.8%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.2-1.4%$62,185,854
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-4.0%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-3.3%$7,804

1.8%

0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.7%$62,185,854
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,968,355
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-3.1%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.3%$7,804

1.6%

+0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$62,185,854

0.8%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$62,185,854

0.6%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$62,185,854

0.5%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$62,185,854
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$75,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.4%$7,804

0.5%

-0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$1,238,894,075
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$62,185,854

0.3%

+0.0%

33.9%


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