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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,112,574,357 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎27.3-27.4%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧30.8-36.0%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧30.8-36.0%$3,970

29.4%

0.5%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.6-8.7%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.7-9.8%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧10.2-11.1%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.6-12.2%$3,970

10.5%

-0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.9-4.0%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.3-5.4%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-15.2%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-7.4%$3,970

6.9%

0.5%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.7-3.8%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.6-5.7%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧5.7-8.3%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-8.3%$3,970

5.8%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.7-6.9%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.2-6.4%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-6.1%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-6.1%$3,970

5.3%

0.4%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.6%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.6-3.7%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-6.5%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-6.5%$3,970

4.8%

-0.8%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.0%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.0%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-3.9%$3,970

2.1%

0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.5%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.5%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-4.5%$3,970

1.9%

+0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-2.2%$41,770,999
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,539,352
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.4%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-3.3%$3,970

1.2%

-0.5%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.9%$41,770,999

0.9%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.6-1.8%$41,770,999
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-9.5%$3,970

0.8%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.6%$41,770,999

0.7%

-0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.3%$41,770,999

0.6%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.5%$41,770,999

0.6%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$1,068,246,494
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$41,770,999
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$53,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$3,970

0.4%

-0.0%

28.1%


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