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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,030,369,581 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.1-24.2%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸28.7-29.1%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧29.4-34.0%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧29.0-33.3%$3,830

28.9%

-0.6%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.8-7.9%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.3-8.4%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-10.9%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.0-12.2%$3,830

9.8%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-3.8%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.9-5.0%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.9%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-5.9%$3,830

4.9%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.7-3.8%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-5.1%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-6.5%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-6.3%$3,830

4.4%

+0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.2%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.5-3.6%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-7.4%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-7.4%$3,830

4.2%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.2-4.3%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.8-4.9%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-7.4%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-6.1%$3,830

4.1%

+0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.8-1.9%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-3.4%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-3.3%$3,830

2.2%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.0%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-4.0%$3,830

2.1%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.5-1.6%$38,623,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,449,226
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.5%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-4.5%$3,830

1.9%

-0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-1.0%$38,623,630

0.9%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-1.1%$38,623,630
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-2.2%$3,830

0.9%

-0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$38,623,630

0.8%

0.1%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.6%$38,623,630

0.7%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$38,623,630

0.7%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$989,267,392
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$38,623,630
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$50,686
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$3,830

0.4%

-0.0%

33.0%


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