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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$4,507,430 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸76.0-77.0%$2,968,914
Polymarket 🌎73.0-74.0%$1,538,586

75.0%

0.7%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$2,968,914
Polymarket 🌎26.0-27.0%$1,538,586

25.0%

-0.8%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$304,765 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸54.0-55.0%$167,468
Betfair 🇬🇧54.9-55.2%$135,378
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.0-56.2%$1,919

54.9%

+0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$167,468
Betfair 🇬🇧43.1-43.9%$135,378
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.0-45.0%$1,919

44.2%

-0.1%

0.9%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$153,890,285 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎29.0-30.0%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧26.0-27.0%$793,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$566,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.3-27.4%$135,135

27.9%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-21.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧17.5-18.2%$793,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$566,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.7-19.2%$135,135

19.2%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-8.0%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.9%$793,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$566,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.5%$135,135

6.3%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-3.9%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.7%$793,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$566,195

3.9%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-3.9%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$793,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$566,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$135,135

2.9%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-3.3%$793,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$566,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.6%$135,135

2.9%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$793,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$566,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$135,135

2.8%

-0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.6%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$793,659
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$566,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.3%$135,135

2.3%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-4.5%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-5.1%$135,135

1.8%

-0.2%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.7%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.2%$135,135

1.8%

0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.6%$135,135

1.7%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.8%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.8%$135,135

1.4%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-2.1%$135,135

1.2%

-0.3%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.1%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$135,135

0.9%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$135,135

0.8%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$135,135

0.7%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$149,279,459
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,115,922
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$135,135

0.4%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$135,135

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$135,135

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$135,135

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$135,135

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$135,135

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$135,135

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$793,659
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$135,135

0.2%

-0.0%

19.2%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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