Odds update every minute | Last updated: 4:02AM EDT on Jul 27, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$484,582,554 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎58.0-59.0%$398,455,079
Betfair 🇬🇧58.5-58.8%$50,263,171
PredictIt 🇺🇸50.9-51.9%$30,566,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧58.0-58.4%$5,302,764

56.7%

-1.8%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎39.3-39.6%$398,455,079
Betfair 🇬🇧38.5-38.8%$50,263,171
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.1-48.1%$30,566,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧38.7-39.6%$5,302,764

41.1%

2.8%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.8%$398,455,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$50,263,171
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$5,302,764

0.7%

-1.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$398,455,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$50,263,171
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$5,302,764

0.6%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$398,455,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$50,263,171
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$30,566,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$5,302,764

0.4%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.3%$398,455,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.3%$50,263,171
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$5,302,764

0.3%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$398,455,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$50,263,171
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$30,566,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$5,302,764

0.1%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$50,263,171
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$5,302,764

0.1%

+0.0%

0.1%
Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 241-297. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 3:54AM EDT on Jul 27, 2024
Over $1 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
DEM VP NomineeDemocrat Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$45,120,667 bet so far
Kelly details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎35.3-35.6%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸34.6-35.6%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧36.0-36.5%$503,185

35.6%

-4.6%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎27.0-31.0%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.8-29.8%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧26.0-29.4%$503,185

28.7%

5.9%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.0-16.0%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.5-13.5%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧11.9-13.9%$503,185

13.6%

1.4%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.1-7.9%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.7-9.6%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-8.3%$503,185

8.1%

0.4%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-6.7%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.7-9.6%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-6.7%$503,185

7.0%

0.9%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.5%$33,008,901
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.5%$503,185

1.8%

-0.5%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-1.1%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-3.8%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.8%$503,185

1.6%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.7%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$503,185

0.8%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.8%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$503,185

0.5%

0.1%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.4%$33,008,901

0.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.3%$33,008,901
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,609,958
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$503,185

0.2%

-0.5%

1.8%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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