Odds update every minute | Last updated: 1:02PM EDT on Mar 21, 2023

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$2,443,732 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧67.1-68.0%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧68.0-71.4%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸66.0-67.0%$551,465$31,509

67.7%

-0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-8.0%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-8.0%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.7-8.6%$551,465$31,509

7.1%

0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-7.4%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-7.7%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.5-12.4%$551,465$31,509

6.2%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.8%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-4.2%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.8-4.8%$551,465$31,509

3.5%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.8%$551,465$31,509

2.3%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-2.0%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-2.0%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.9%$551,465$31,509

1.4%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.9%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$551,465$31,509

0.7%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.9%$551,465$31,509

0.5%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$220,578$42,405

0.4%

+0.0%
Yang details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,670,866$575,286
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$220,578$42,405

0.1%

+0.0%

10.2%
GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$3,553,787 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧50.5-51.0%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧50.8-51.8%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸36.2-37.1%$1,104,781$19,506

50.6%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧33.8-35.0%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧34.0-35.5%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-40.9%$1,104,781$19,506

34.5%

-0.4%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.6%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.1-3.9%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.7-7.6%$1,104,781$19,506

3.4%

-0.1%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.6%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.8-4.8%$1,104,781$19,506

2.1%

-0.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.8-5.7%$1,104,781$19,506

1.9%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.4%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.8%$1,104,781$19,506

1.7%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$1,104,781$19,506

0.8%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.6%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$1,104,781$19,506

0.5%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.0%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010

0.5%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.5%

+0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.7%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.3%

0.2%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.4%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.3%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.2%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.4%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010

0.2%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$2,056,585$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.1%

-0.0%

1.7%
US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$4,716,802 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧29.0-29.9%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧29.4-32.3%$1,410,695$65,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.6-41.6%$77,217$7,755

29.6%

+0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧22.2-23.3%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.3-24.4%$1,410,695$65,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.8-25.7%$77,217$7,755

22.8%

0.7%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧21.3-21.7%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.8-22.7%$1,410,695$65,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.7-28.7%$77,217$7,755

21.6%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.6%$1,410,695$65,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-5.9%$77,217$7,755

3.2%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$1,410,695$65,362

2.6%

0.5%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.6%$1,410,695$65,362

2.2%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.3%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$1,410,695$65,362

1.8%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.0%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,410,695$65,362

1.8%

0.1%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.3%$1,410,695$65,362

1.0%

-0.4%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.2%$1,410,695$65,362

0.9%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,410,695$65,362

0.5%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,410,695$65,362

0.3%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-24.4%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

0.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.1%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.1%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.1%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.1%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-5.0%$3,227,888$770,031
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.0%

-0.2%

10.4%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
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"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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