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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, and PredictIt | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Presidency 2024 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2024 elections

$145,942 bet so far

DEM details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧57.8-58.8%
Smarkets 🇬🇧58.5-60.6%
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.4-54.4%

57.3%

0.1%
REP details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧37.9-38.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧38.2-40.3%
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.5-46.5%

41.1%

-0.1%

1.6%

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$827,556 bet so far
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-40.9%
Smarkets 🇬🇧28.6-31.8%
Betfair 🇬🇧29.0-31.3%

33.6%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸36.1-37.0%
Smarkets 🇬🇧31.8-33.6%
Betfair 🇬🇧28.6-34.0%

33.5%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.8-6.8%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-5.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-6.3%

4.8%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.8-6.8%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.1%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.9%

3.4%

-0.2%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.9-4.9%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-4.5%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-4.5%

2.5%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.8%

2.1%

0.2%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.8%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.3%

1.9%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.1%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%

0.7%

-0.0%
Yang details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-2.2%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.3%

0.5%

+0.0%

16.9%
Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$641,331 bet so far
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧18.2-19.2%
Smarkets 🇬🇧19.2-21.7%

19.3%

7.9%
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧15.6-16.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧15.6-17.2%

16.2%

0.1%
Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
FTX 🌎9.5-10.1%
Betfair 🇬🇧10.2-10.6%
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.2-11.1%

10.3%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-8.3%

7.1%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧4.0-4.8%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-5.6%

4.3%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.3%

3.1%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-2.9%

1.6%

0.1%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.8%

1.4%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.4%

1.4%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-3.1%

1.4%

-0.4%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.4%

1.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.3%

1.1%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.2%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-2.1%

1.0%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.0%

0.9%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.0%

0.8%

0.2%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.8%

0.7%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.5%

0.5%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.4%

0.4%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.3%

0.4%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.3%

0.3%

+0.0%

26.5%
GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$5,324,064 bet so far
Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.2-26.1%
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-25.0%
Betfair 🇬🇧22.2-25.0%

24.3%

-0.4%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.5-22.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.2-15.2%
Betfair 🇬🇧12.8-14.7%

16.6%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.5-8.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.6-11.4%
Betfair 🇬🇧10.9-11.4%

10.0%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.6-6.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.3-5.7%
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.9%

5.7%

0.2%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.6-6.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-5.0%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-5.0%

4.7%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.6%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.6%

3.5%

-0.4%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.7-5.6%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-3.5%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-3.3%

3.5%

-0.3%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-3.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-20.0%

3.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%

3.2%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.4%
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-2.9%

2.3%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-2.4%
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-2.5%

2.2%

+0.0%
TimScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-2.2%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.3%

2.0%

0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.4%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.6%

2.0%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.8%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.8%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%

1.4%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.7%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%

0.7%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.0%

0.5%

0.1%

13.8%

Books we like:
"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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