Odds update every minute | Last updated: 8:50PM EDT on Aug 16, 2022

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024
Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$17,651,292 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
FTX 🌎41.1-42.8%$14,956,302$657,001
Betfair 🇬🇧20.4-20.8%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.4-20.8%$982,467$255,344
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$67,414$14,020

31.1%

0.2%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧22.2-22.7%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-22.7%$982,467$255,344
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$67,414$14,020

22.6%

1.2%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-12.8%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.8-13.2%$982,467$255,344
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$67,414$14,020

13.0%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-5.7%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-5.7%$982,467$255,344
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$67,414$14,020

5.7%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.7-5.4%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.0-5.0%$982,467$255,344

4.5%

-0.2%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-4.2%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-3.7%$982,467$255,344

3.7%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.7%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.6%$982,467$255,344

3.2%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-3.1%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$982,467$255,344

2.7%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.2%$982,467$255,344

1.8%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$982,467$255,344

1.6%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-1.5%$982,467$255,344

1.4%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.2%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$982,467$255,344

0.9%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$982,467$255,344

0.7%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$982,467$255,344

0.7%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$982,467$255,344

0.6%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.8%$982,467$255,344

0.5%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$982,467$255,344

0.5%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$982,467$255,344

0.4%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$982,467$255,344

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$982,467$255,344

0.3%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$982,467$255,344

0.3%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,645,109$418,160
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$982,467$255,344

0.2%

-0.0%

3.3%

Senate Seats 2022 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current senate is 50-50
Last updated: 8:40PM EDT on Aug 16, 2022
Over $750k bet. State betting is from PredictIt
Betfair to be added if liquid state market available
Senate Control
2022
Bets on which party will control the Senate after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$818,071 bet so far

DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎57.0-59.0%$471,832$448,303
PredictIt 🇺🇸56.9-57.8%$331,156$109,515
Smarkets 🇬🇧56.5-60.2%$15,083$8,145

57.9%

-0.1%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎41.0-43.0%$471,832$448,303
PredictIt 🇺🇸42.2-43.1%$331,156$109,515
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-45.0%$15,083$8,145

41.5%

-0.5%
House Control 2022Bets on which party will control the House after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$707,995 bet so far

REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎79.0-81.0%$199,337$176,410
PredictIt 🇺🇸76.5-77.5%$490,228$85,202
Smarkets 🇬🇧75.2-79.4%$18,779$9,517

78.9%

0.3%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎19.0-21.0%$199,337$176,410
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.5-23.5%$490,228$85,202
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.8-23.8%$18,779$9,517

21.0%

-0.3%

Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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