Odds update every minute | Last updated: 12:50AM EDT on Jul 15, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$321,332,724 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎70.0-71.0%$257,254,725
Betfair 🇬🇧67.6-68.0%$36,581,196
PredictIt 🇺🇸59.8-60.7%$23,267,225
Smarkets 🇬🇧68.0-69.0%$4,229,663

66.8%

2.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$257,254,725
Betfair 🇬🇧14.7-15.2%$36,581,196
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.3-23.2%$23,267,225
Smarkets 🇬🇧14.3-15.2%$4,229,663

17.5%

1.5%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-5.5%$257,254,725
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-6.7%$36,581,196
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.8-10.7%$23,267,225
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-7.4%$4,229,663

7.3%

-2.6%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.7%$257,254,725
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$36,581,196
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-3.3%$4,229,663

2.6%

-0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.1%$257,254,725
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.6%$36,581,196
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.6-4.5%$23,267,225
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$4,229,663

2.5%

-0.6%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.6%$257,254,725
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.1%$36,581,196
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$4,229,663

1.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$257,254,725
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$36,581,196
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.1%$4,229,663

0.7%

-0.4%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$257,254,725
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$36,581,196
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.8%$23,267,225
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$4,229,663

0.6%

-0.0%

0.9%

Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 226-312. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 12:31AM EDT on Jul 15, 2024
Over $1 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$112,666,188 bet so far

Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎31.3-31.8%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-40.8%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧42.7-50.0%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧39.7-48.1%$155,141

40.6%

9.5%
Burgum details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎38.5-41.2%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.7%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧28.6-31.7%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧26.1-28.8%$155,141

30.3%

7.9%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎12.4-12.5%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.5-10.2%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧5.7-10.4%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-10.6%$155,141

9.4%

-2.9%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.9-3.9%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.4-4.3%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-6.5%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.3-6.8%$155,141

3.3%

-5.5%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-3.0%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.4-5.1%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-3.6%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.0-3.8%$155,141

2.8%

-1.2%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.6%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.6-4.3%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-7.1%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-7.6%$155,141

2.8%

-0.2%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-2.1%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.4-4.3%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-2.4%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.5%$155,141

2.3%

-0.4%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-1.3%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.1-6.8%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.8%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.5%$155,141

2.1%

0.7%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-2.5%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.7%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-9.5%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-2.4%$155,141

1.4%

0.4%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.5%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.7%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$1,430,868
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.0%$155,141

0.9%

-1.2%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.6%$80,589,900
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.7%$30,518,532
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,430,868

0.8%

-0.0%

3.3%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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