Odds update every minute | Last updated: 1:37AM EDT on Jul 01, 2022

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024
Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$16,989,658 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
FTX 🌎39.9-40.5%$14,745,567
Betfair 🇬🇧20.0-20.4%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.0-20.4%$796,648
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$63,182

37.6%

-0.5%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧22.7-23.3%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.7-23.3%$796,648
PredictIt 🇺🇸32.0-33.0%$63,182

23.3%

1.2%
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧13.9-14.3%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.9-14.7%$796,648
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$63,182

14.4%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-5.9%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.7-5.9%$796,648
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$63,182

5.8%

-0.1%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧5.0-5.1%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-5.1%$796,648

5.1%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-2.8%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-2.8%$796,648

2.7%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.8%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$796,648

2.6%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.8%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$796,648

2.1%

-0.3%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.5%$796,648

1.6%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$796,648

1.3%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.2%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$796,648

0.8%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$796,648

0.8%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$796,648

0.7%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$796,648

0.4%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$796,648

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$796,648

0.4%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$796,648

0.3%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$796,648

0.3%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$796,648

0.3%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$796,648

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,384,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$796,648

0.2%

+0.0%
Senate Seats 2022 (estimate: 50-50. Hover over states)
Current senate is 50-50
Last updated: 1:35AM EDT on Jul 01, 2022
Over $750k bet. State betting is from PredictIt
Betfair to be added if liquid state market available
Senate Control
2022
Bets on which party will control the Senate after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$338,015 bet so far

REP details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸58.8-59.8%$272,617
Polymarket 🌎66.0-68.0%$53,390
Smarkets 🇬🇧55.6-64.1%$12,008

60.5%

-2.0%
DEM details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.2-41.2%$272,617
Polymarket 🌎32.0-34.0%$53,390
Smarkets 🇬🇧35.7-40.0%$12,008

39.4%

1.9%
House Control 2022Bets on which party will control the House after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$535,550 bet so far

REP details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸84.3-85.3%$433,735
Polymarket 🌎90.0-92.0%$88,971
Smarkets 🇬🇧83.3-87.7%$12,844

85.9%

-0.2%
DEM details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.7-15.7%$433,735
Polymarket 🌎8.0-10.0%$88,971
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.8-16.1%$12,844

14.1%

0.2%

Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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