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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$14,890,622 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸72.0-73.0%$10,395,358
Polymarket 🌎75.0-76.0%$4,495,264

74.0%

-0.5%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$10,395,358
Polymarket 🌎24.0-25.0%$4,495,264

26.0%

0.5%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$396,457 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-55.0%$236,615
Betfair 🇬🇧55.2-56.8%$157,923
Smarkets 🇬🇧55.3-56.5%$1,919

55.3%

+0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$236,615
Betfair 🇬🇧41.3-42.7%$157,923
Smarkets 🇬🇧40.3-43.9%$1,919

43.2%

-0.0%

1.5%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$307,336,715 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧22.7-23.3%$1,012,944
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$789,486
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.7-23.8%$176,718

24.1%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸20.0-21.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$1,012,944
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$789,486
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$176,718

21.4%

0.8%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.9%$1,012,944
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$789,486

8.8%

0.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧5.0-5.3%$1,012,944
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$789,486
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.1-6.5%$176,718

6.2%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.1%$1,012,944
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$789,486
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$176,718

3.9%

0.3%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.1%$1,012,944
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$789,486
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$176,718

3.4%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,012,944
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$789,486
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$176,718

3.1%

0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,012,944
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$789,486
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$176,718

2.1%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.5%$176,718

1.8%

0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$176,718

1.7%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$176,718

1.5%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.2%$176,718

1.1%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.0%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$176,718

0.9%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$176,718

0.8%

-0.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$176,718

0.7%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$176,718

0.5%

0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$176,718

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$176,718

0.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$176,718

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,718

0.2%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$7,837,987
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$176,718

0.2%

-0.2%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,718

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,718

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,012,944
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,718

0.1%

+0.0%

16.5%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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