Odds update every minute | Last updated: 12:47PM EDT on Mar 09, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$2,078,754 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸55.0-56.0%$2,078,754

55.5%

-1.0%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸44.0-45.0%$2,078,754

44.5%

1.0%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 49-51. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 12:10PM EDT on Mar 09, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$391,095,618 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.9-21.0%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸20.0-21.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧19.6-20.8%$1,048,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$846,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧19.6-21.3%$184,328

21.5%

-0.4%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.0-18.1%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-20.8%$1,048,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$846,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.0-20.8%$184,328

20.1%

0.9%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.7-9.8%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧7.7-10.0%$1,048,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-14.0%$846,910

11.0%

0.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.5%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-6.3%$1,048,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-9.0%$846,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.7%$184,328

6.1%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.6%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.8%$1,048,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$846,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$184,328

3.4%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.1-3.2%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$1,048,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$846,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$184,328

3.1%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.0%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$1,048,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$846,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$184,328

2.6%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.2%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$1,048,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$846,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$184,328

2.1%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$184,328

1.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.1%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.1%$184,328

1.8%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$184,328

1.3%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.5%$184,328

1.0%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$184,328

0.8%

0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.1%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$184,328

0.8%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$184,328

0.5%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$184,328

0.5%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$184,328

0.4%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$378,975,008
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$10,046,119
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$184,328

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$184,328

0.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$184,328

0.2%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$184,328

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$184,328

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$184,328

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,048,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$184,328

0.1%

+0.0%

19.6%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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