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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$15,778,041 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-100.0%$11,017,502
Polymarket 🌎100.0-100.0%$4,760,539

100.0%

26.0%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-100.0%$11,017,502
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$4,760,539

0.0%

-26.0%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$397,971 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-55.0%$237,966
Betfair 🇬🇧55.6-56.8%$158,086
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.9-56.5%$1,919

55.3%

-0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$237,966
Betfair 🇬🇧41.7-42.7%$158,086
Smarkets 🇬🇧40.6-43.9%$1,919

43.3%

0.1%

1.4%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$318,735,567 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.0-24.1%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧22.2-22.7%$1,012,616
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$803,151
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-23.3%$177,100

23.7%

-0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.3-17.4%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧18.5-19.6%$1,012,616
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-27.0%$803,151
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$177,100

20.2%

-0.3%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.3-7.4%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-6.9%$1,012,616
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$803,151

8.8%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.7-5.8%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$1,012,616
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$803,151
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-6.1%$177,100

6.2%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-2.7%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.1%$1,012,616
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$803,151
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$177,100

3.6%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.3-3.4%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.1%$1,012,616
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$803,151
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$177,100

3.4%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.2%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$1,012,616
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$803,151
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$177,100

2.8%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$1,012,616
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$803,151
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$177,100

1.9%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.5%$177,100

1.8%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$177,100

1.7%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$177,100

1.4%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.2%$177,100

1.1%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$177,100

0.8%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$177,100

0.8%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$177,100

0.6%

-0.1%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$177,100

0.5%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$308,624,356
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$8,119,007
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$177,100

0.3%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$177,100

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$177,100

0.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$177,100

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$177,100

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$177,100

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$177,100

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,012,616
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$177,100

0.1%

+0.0%

18.9%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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