Odds update every minute | Last updated: 9:10PM EDT on Sep 28, 2022

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024
Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$18,024,544 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
FTX 🌎40.2-40.8%$15,130,312$540,304
Smarkets 🇬🇧19.6-20.0%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧19.6-20.0%$1,650,904$274,612
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$66,186$3,141

29.1%

-0.9%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.5-18.2%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧17.5-17.9%$1,650,904$274,612
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$66,186$3,141

17.8%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-17.9%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧17.2-17.9%$1,650,904$274,612
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$66,186$3,141

17.6%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-5.7%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.7%$1,650,904$274,612
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$66,186$3,141

5.6%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧4.2-5.3%$1,650,904$274,612

4.8%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-3.6%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.6%$1,650,904$274,612

3.5%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.3%$1,650,904$274,612

3.1%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.8%$1,650,904$274,612

2.6%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.6%$1,650,904$274,612

2.2%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.0%$1,650,904$274,612

1.4%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$1,650,904$274,612

1.2%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.5%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.5%$1,650,904$274,612

1.2%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.2%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$1,650,904$274,612

1.0%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.3%$1,650,904$274,612

0.8%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.4%$1,650,904$274,612

0.7%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$1,650,904$274,612

0.5%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,650,904$274,612

0.4%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,650,904$274,612

0.4%

-0.1%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.8%$1,650,904$274,612

0.4%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,650,904$274,612

0.4%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,650,904$274,612

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,177,142$388,299
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,650,904$274,612

0.2%

-0.0%

4.9%

Senate Seats 2022 (estimate: 50-50. Hover over states)
Current senate is 50-50
Last updated: 8:54PM EDT on Sep 28, 2022
Over $750k bet. State betting is from PredictIt
Betfair to be added if liquid state market available
Senate Control
2022
Bets on which party will control the Senate after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$1,199,754 bet so far

DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎62.0-64.0%$700,064$650,253
PredictIt 🇺🇸58.7-59.6%$474,128$220,913
Smarkets 🇬🇧56.8-64.1%$25,562$16,507

62.0%

0.4%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎36.0-38.0%$700,064$650,253
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.4-41.3%$474,128$220,913
Smarkets 🇬🇧37.3-43.1%$25,562$16,507

38.0%

-0.4%
House Control 2022Bets on which party will control the House after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$867,350 bet so far

REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎73.0-75.0%$271,197$182,302
PredictIt 🇺🇸74.8-75.7%$572,763$139,870
Smarkets 🇬🇧74.1-78.1%$23,390$10,546

74.6%

0.6%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎25.0-27.0%$271,197$182,302
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.3-25.2%$572,763$139,870
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.7-25.0%$23,390$10,546

25.4%

-0.6%

Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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