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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, and PredictIt | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics for market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$141,278 bet so far
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧20.0-20.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-20.8%

20.0%

+0.0%
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧14.3-14.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.9-16.1%

14.8%

0.4%
Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧9.5-10.0%
Smarkets 🇬🇧9.5-10.9%

10.0%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧5.7-6.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.8-6.3%

5.8%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧3.8-4.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.7-4.2%

4.1%

0.2%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-3.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-4.8%

2.9%

-0.4%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-3.1%

1.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.9%

1.9%

0.2%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.8%

1.7%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.1%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-2.8%

1.7%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-1.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.1%

1.6%

0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-2.5%

1.4%

-0.1%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-2.2%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-2.5%

1.3%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.0%

1.2%

-0.1%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-2.3%

1.2%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.1%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-1.8%

0.9%

0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.8%

0.9%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.4%

0.6%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.1%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.7%

0.4%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.7%

0.2%

+0.0%

24.6%
Presidency 2024 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2024 elections

$104,969 bet so far
DEM details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸54.0-55.0%

54.5%

+0.0%
REP details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%

45.5%

+0.0%
GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$3,187,654 bet so far
Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.5-23.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.1-16.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧16.1-16.9%

18.7%

0.9%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.8-11.7%
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.9-12.2%
Betfair 🇬🇧11.1-12.5%

11.5%

-0.3%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.7-12.6%
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-8.7%
Betfair 🇬🇧3.6-8.3%

8.1%

-0.3%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.3-7.2%
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-5.0%

5.9%

0.6%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.2-8.1%
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-6.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-6.7%

5.9%

0.4%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.3-7.2%
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-5.1%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-5.0%

4.9%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.6-4.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-11.1%

4.7%

0.2%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.6-4.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-5.1%
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-5.0%

3.7%

0.3%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.5-5.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-3.5%
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-3.8%

3.5%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.5-5.4%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.1%
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.0%

2.7%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.6-4.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.4%

2.7%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.7-3.6%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-2.0%

2.6%

0.2%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.6-4.5%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-3.5%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.3%

2.5%

-0.0%
TimScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.7-3.6%
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%

2.4%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-3.1%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-3.3%

1.3%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.9%
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-2.9%

1.2%

+0.0%

24.9%

Books we like:
"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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