Odds update every minute | Last updated: 4:56AM EDT on Jul 09, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$296,690,381 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎62.0-63.0%$240,131,538
Betfair 🇬🇧61.7-62.1%$31,748,195
PredictIt 🇺🇸54.4-55.3%$20,976,361
Smarkets 🇬🇧61.0-62.5%$3,843,467

60.2%

1.7%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.0-21.0%$240,131,538
Betfair 🇬🇧15.2-15.6%$31,748,195
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.8-27.6%$20,976,361
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.4-15.6%$3,843,467

19.0%

5.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.7-7.6%$240,131,538
Betfair 🇬🇧9.5-10.0%$31,748,195
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.1-12.0%$20,976,361
Smarkets 🇬🇧8.3-10.6%$3,843,467

9.5%

-6.5%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.4-4.5%$240,131,538
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.4%$31,748,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-4.2%$3,843,467

3.7%

-0.5%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-2.1%$240,131,538
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$31,748,195
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$20,976,361
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$3,843,467

2.9%

-0.7%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.7%$240,131,538
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$31,748,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.2%$3,843,467

1.3%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.6%$240,131,538
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.1%$31,748,195
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$3,843,467

0.8%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$31,748,195
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.8%$20,976,361
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$3,843,467

0.6%

0.1%

1.9%

Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 226-312. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 4:55AM EDT on Jul 09, 2024
Over $1 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$90,988,490 bet so far

Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎23.6-30.6%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.7-27.5%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧29.9-32.3%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧28.6-34.0%$144,867

29.0%

0.5%
Burgum details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎23.3-31.7%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.1-22.0%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧23.3-26.3%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.4-27.4%$144,867

24.4%

2.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.8-12.1%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸15.6-16.5%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-12.2%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧8.7-13.2%$144,867

12.0%

0.2%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.6-8.6%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.3-8.3%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧8.3-9.1%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.4-10.2%$144,867

8.2%

-1.8%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.0-9.2%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.6-5.5%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-4.3%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-5.3%$144,867

5.3%

0.3%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.8-5.8%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.6-5.5%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-3.7%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-4.2%$144,867

4.0%

-0.1%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.8%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-6.1%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-6.9%$144,867

3.3%

1.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.3-5.6%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.5-6.4%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.3%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-5.0%$144,867

2.7%

-2.0%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.8%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.8%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-5.7%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-4.0%$144,867

1.7%

-0.4%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-2.3%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.8%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.1%$1,238,608

1.5%

-0.9%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-2.5%$65,765,985
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$23,839,289
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,238,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$144,867

1.5%

1.3%

6.4%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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