Odds update every minute | Last updated: 11:19PM EDT on May 16, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$7,399,016 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸54.5-55.6%$4,616,056
Polymarket 🌎53.5-54.5%$2,398,903
PredictIt 🇺🇸58.4-59.4%$300,496
Betfair 🇬🇧51.3-52.6%$78,201
Smarkets 🇬🇧48.9-52.5%$5,360

54.1%

-0.3%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸44.4-45.5%$4,616,056
Polymarket 🌎45.5-46.5%$2,398,903
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.6-41.6%$300,496
Betfair 🇬🇧47.6-48.5%$78,201
Smarkets 🇬🇧47.5-51.1%$5,360

45.9%

0.3%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current Senate is 47-53
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 11:06PM EDT on May 16, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$607,013,143 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.6-18.7%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧13.9-17.2%$1,195,767
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$1,130,853
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.1-17.5%$215,767

18.8%

-0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.6-16.7%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧17.5-18.5%$1,195,767
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$1,130,853
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.5-19.2%$215,767

17.7%

0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.0-14.1%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧10.6-10.9%$1,195,767
PredictIt 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$1,130,853

15.0%

-0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.4%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.8-5.9%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.9%$1,195,767
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,130,853
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.7%$215,767

6.3%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.7-5.8%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.8%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$1,195,767
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$1,130,853
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$215,767

4.2%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-4.0%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-3.7%$215,767

3.6%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.9-3.0%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.1%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$1,195,767
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,130,853
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$215,767

3.0%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.0%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.8%$1,195,767
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,130,853
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$215,767

2.9%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-3.9%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.1%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$215,767

2.6%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-3.1%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.9%$215,767

2.6%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.4%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.5%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$215,767

1.7%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-0.9%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.3%$1,195,767
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,130,853
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$215,767

1.6%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$215,767

0.9%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$215,767

0.5%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$215,767

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$215,767

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$583,356,785
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$21,124,927
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$215,767

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$215,767

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$215,767

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.1%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,195,767
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.1%

-0.0%

16.0%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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