Odds update every minute | Last updated: 7:30AM EDT on Mar 19, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$16,061,693 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧82.0-84.0%$9,495,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸83.5-84.4%$5,608,288
Smarkets 🇬🇧84.0-87.7%$957,626

83.5%

-1.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.7-3.8%$9,495,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.8-8.7%$5,608,288
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-4.3%$957,626

5.3%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.4%$9,495,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.9-5.8%$5,608,288
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-5.0%$957,626

4.0%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$9,495,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.9%$5,608,288
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$957,626

1.3%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$9,495,779
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$957,626

0.6%

-0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$9,495,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,608,288
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$957,626

0.5%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$9,495,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,608,288
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$957,626

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$9,495,779
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$957,626

0.1%

+0.0%

4.7%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$21,503,402 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸92.0-93.0%$12,761,856
Betfair 🇬🇧91.7-92.6%$7,791,890
Smarkets 🇬🇧93.5-95.2%$949,656

92.5%

-0.3%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$12,761,856
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$7,791,890
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.4%$949,656

2.0%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$12,761,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-3.6%$7,791,890
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-3.5%$949,656

1.2%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$7,791,890
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$949,656

0.4%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,761,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-2.3%$7,791,890
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$949,656

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,761,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$7,791,890
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$949,656

0.1%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,761,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.6%$7,791,890
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$949,656

0.1%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,761,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$7,791,890
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$949,656

0.1%

-0.0%

3.2%

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$23,163,599 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧48.1-48.5%$16,196,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$4,313,405
Smarkets 🇬🇧47.2-49.0%$2,653,212

47.9%

-0.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧35.5-35.7%$16,196,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$4,313,405
Smarkets 🇬🇧36.0-36.8%$2,653,212

37.7%

0.6%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.6-3.7%$16,196,982
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-4.0%$2,653,212

3.6%

-0.3%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-2.9%$16,196,982
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$2,653,212

2.8%

-0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$16,196,982
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$2,653,212

2.5%

-0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.0%$16,196,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$4,313,405
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.6%$2,653,212

2.4%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$16,196,982
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.0%$2,653,212

0.7%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$16,196,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,313,405
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$2,653,212

0.5%

+0.0%

1.8%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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