Odds update every minute | Last updated: 3:08PM EDT on Aug 16, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$11,312,732 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸50.5-51.5%$6,916,181
Polymarket 🌎47.0-48.0%$3,869,120
PredictIt 🇺🇸52.5-53.5%$387,713
Betfair 🇬🇧48.1-49.5%$139,762

50.1%

0.3%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸48.5-49.5%$6,916,181
Polymarket 🌎52.0-53.0%$3,869,120
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.5-47.5%$387,713
Betfair 🇬🇧50.3-52.1%$139,762

49.9%

-0.3%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current Senate is 47-53
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 2:54PM EDT on Aug 16, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$726,259,879 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎23.0-23.1%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.2%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$253,434

20.5%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.0-13.1%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧10.2-10.6%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.0-10.6%$253,434

12.6%

-0.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.3-13.4%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.5-9.6%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧10.4-10.9%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-11.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.4-12.8%$253,434

11.0%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.7-8.8%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧10.2-10.9%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.4-11.6%$253,434

10.5%

0.1%
Ossoff details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.2-9.3%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.3-9.4%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-8.0%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-8.0%$253,434

8.6%

-0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.9-4.0%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.5-4.6%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.8%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.8%$253,434

3.4%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.5-3.8%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$253,434

3.2%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.6%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$253,434

2.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.8-4.0%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$253,434

2.5%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.6%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.9-2.0%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.8%$253,434

2.1%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.8%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.8%$253,434

1.4%

0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.2%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$253,434

1.0%

0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.2-1.5%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$1,461,383
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,267,907
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$253,434

0.9%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$686,437,023
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$253,434

0.8%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$253,434

0.4%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$253,434

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$253,434

0.3%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$253,434

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$253,434

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$253,434

0.2%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$686,437,023
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$36,841,882
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$253,434

0.2%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$253,434

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$253,434

0.1%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$253,434

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,461,383
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$253,434

0.1%

+0.0%

16.1%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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