Odds update every minute | Last updated: 11:50PM EDT on Apr 16, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$5,717,021 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸54.0-55.0%$3,430,974
Polymarket 🌎55.0-56.0%$1,994,836
PredictIt 🇺🇸49.3-50.2%$256,913
Betfair 🇬🇧52.6-55.2%$29,099
Smarkets 🇬🇧50.7-59.4%$5,201

53.7%

+0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$3,430,974
Polymarket 🌎44.0-45.0%$1,994,836
PredictIt 🇺🇸49.3-51.2%$256,913
Betfair 🇬🇧44.6-47.6%$29,099
Smarkets 🇬🇧40.8-49.2%$5,201

46.3%

-0.0%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 11:42PM EDT on Apr 16, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$551,727,341 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.7-18.8%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧17.2-18.5%$1,148,211
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$1,009,784
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-18.9%$208,440

19.5%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.1-17.2%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-18.0%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$1,148,211
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$1,009,784
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-20.4%$208,440

18.9%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎11.1-11.2%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧8.0-8.7%$1,148,211
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$1,009,784

11.1%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-5.3%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.1-5.8%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-4.8%$1,148,211
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,009,784
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-5.9%$208,440

5.9%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.4-4.5%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-3.1%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$1,148,211
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,009,784
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$208,440

3.2%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.8%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.3%$208,440

3.1%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.1%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.2-3.6%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$1,148,211
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,009,784
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$208,440

2.9%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.8%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$1,148,211
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,009,784
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$208,440

2.6%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.9-1.0%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,148,211
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,009,784
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$208,440

1.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.6-2.4%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$208,440

1.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-2.2%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-1.8%$208,440

1.6%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.6%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$208,440

1.0%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.4%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$208,440

1.0%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$208,440

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$208,440

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$208,440

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$208,440

0.4%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$532,760,907
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$16,608,133
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$208,440

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$208,440

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,148,211
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.1%

+0.0%

22.2%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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