Odds update every minute | Last updated: 5:39PM EDT on Oct 01, 2023

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$6,082,586 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧66.2-67.1%$4,744,532
PredictIt 🇺🇸67.0-68.0%$858,556
Smarkets 🇬🇧66.7-68.5%$479,498

66.9%

0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧11.4-12.8%$4,744,532
PredictIt 🇺🇸20.7-21.7%$858,556
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.9-11.9%$479,498

13.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-5.6%$4,744,532
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.9-7.9%$858,556
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-6.3%$479,498

5.6%

-0.2%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-1.8%$4,744,532
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$858,556
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$479,498

1.8%

-0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$4,744,532
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$858,556
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.6%$479,498

1.7%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.7%$4,744,532
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.5%$479,498

1.1%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$4,744,532
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$858,556
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$479,498

0.5%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$4,744,532
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$858,556
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$479,498

0.5%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$4,744,532
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$479,498

0.2%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,744,532
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$858,556
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$479,498

0.1%

+0.0%

8.4%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$6,206,976 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧74.1-75.2%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸70.5-71.4%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧78.1-80.7%$612,734

74.3%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧7.4-8.3%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.7-8.7%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-9.5%$612,734

8.0%

-0.3%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.8-5.0%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.7-9.7%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.8-5.4%$612,734

5.5%

0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-3.1%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.8-6.8%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-3.7%$612,734

3.4%

-0.3%
Christie details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.1%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.9%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.9%$612,734

1.1%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.7%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$612,734

0.8%

0.1%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.3%$612,734

0.8%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$612,734

0.6%

-0.1%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.4%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$612,734

0.5%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.3%$4,281,833
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,312,409
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$612,734

0.4%

-0.0%

4.6%

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$8,962,428 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧35.0-35.5%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧34.3-35.7%$1,783,465
PredictIt 🇺🇸37.0-38.0%$153,562

35.2%

0.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧29.9-30.3%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧33.3-34.5%$1,783,465
PredictIt 🇺🇸41.0-42.0%$153,562

31.0%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.1%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-8.0%$1,783,465

7.0%

-0.3%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧4.8-5.1%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.3-5.0%$1,783,465

4.9%

0.4%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-4.8%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-4.8%$1,783,465

4.6%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.3%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.7%$1,783,465
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$153,562

3.2%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.3%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.7%$1,783,465

3.2%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.6%$1,783,465
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$153,562

2.3%

-0.2%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.1%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$1,783,465

2.0%

-0.2%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$7,025,465
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$1,783,465

1.5%

+0.0%

5.1%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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