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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$15,184,446 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸74.0-75.0%$10,659,064
Polymarket 🌎74.0-75.0%$4,525,510

74.5%

1.5%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$10,659,064
Polymarket 🌎25.0-26.0%$4,525,510

25.5%

-1.5%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$396,937 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-55.0%$237,315
Betfair 🇬🇧55.6-56.8%$157,703
Smarkets 🇬🇧55.3-56.5%$1,919

55.4%

0.1%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$237,315
Betfair 🇬🇧41.7-42.7%$157,703
Smarkets 🇬🇧40.6-43.5%$1,919

43.3%

+0.0%

1.4%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$314,838,023 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.2-24.3%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧22.2-23.3%$1,009,689
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$799,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-23.3%$176,801

23.9%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-17.1%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸20.0-21.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$1,009,689
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$799,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$176,801

20.5%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.1-8.2%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.0-10.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.9%$1,009,689
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$799,157

8.8%

-0.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.5-5.6%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.1%$1,009,689
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$799,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-6.3%$176,801

6.2%

0.2%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-2.7%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.1%$1,009,689
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$799,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$176,801

3.6%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.4-3.5%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.1%$1,009,689
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$799,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$176,801

3.4%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,009,689
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$799,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$176,801

2.9%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$1,009,689
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$799,157
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$176,801

1.9%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.5%$176,801

1.8%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$176,801

1.7%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$176,801

1.4%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.2%$176,801

1.1%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$176,801

0.8%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.0%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$176,801

0.8%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$176,801

0.7%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$176,801

0.5%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$304,888,623
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$7,963,986
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$176,801

0.3%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$176,801

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$176,801

0.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$176,801

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,801

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,801

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,801

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,009,689
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,801

0.1%

+0.0%

18.3%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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