Odds update every minute | Last updated: 3:44PM EDT on Aug 18, 2022

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$17,743,838 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
FTX 🌎42.9-43.0%$15,030,205$718,671
Betfair 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$1,011,057$282,435
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$67,317$13,543

32.8%

1.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧20.8-21.7%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.8-21.7%$1,011,057$282,435
PredictIt 🇺🇸30.0-31.0%$67,317$13,543

21.5%

-0.7%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧11.9-12.5%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.9-12.8%$1,011,057$282,435
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$67,317$13,543

12.4%

-0.7%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-5.9%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-5.9%$1,011,057$282,435
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$67,317$13,543

5.8%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.8-5.3%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-5.0%$1,011,057$282,435

4.5%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-4.2%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-4.2%$1,011,057$282,435

3.8%

-0.2%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.8%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-3.9%$1,011,057$282,435

3.5%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.9%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.9%$1,011,057$282,435

2.7%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.5%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$1,011,057$282,435

2.0%

-0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.8%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$1,011,057$282,435

1.5%

-0.1%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$1,011,057$282,435

1.4%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.2%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,011,057$282,435

0.9%

-0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$1,011,057$282,435

0.7%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$1,011,057$282,435

0.7%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,011,057$282,435

0.6%

0.4%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.0%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$1,011,057$282,435

0.6%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,011,057$282,435

0.5%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.8%$1,011,057$282,435

0.5%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,011,057$282,435

0.5%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$1,011,057$282,435

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,011,057$282,435

0.3%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,635,274$399,894
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,011,057$282,435

0.2%

-0.0%

2.3%
Senate Seats 2022 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current senate is 50-50
Last updated: 3:18PM EDT on Aug 18, 2022
Over $750k bet. State betting is from PredictIt
Betfair to be added if liquid state market available
Senate Control
2022Bets on which party will control the Senate after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$878,307 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎57.0-59.0%$522,778$498,598
PredictIt 🇺🇸58.1-60.1%$339,799$117,766
Smarkets 🇬🇧56.5-62.1%$15,749$8,811

58.2%

0.4%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎41.0-43.0%$522,778$498,598
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.4-41.4%$339,799$117,766
Smarkets 🇬🇧38.8-39.1%$15,749$8,811

41.7%

-0.4%
House Control 2022Bets on which party will control the House after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$709,169 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎78.0-80.0%$201,882$178,754
PredictIt 🇺🇸76.5-77.5%$488,478$83,755
Smarkets 🇬🇧76.3-79.4%$18,779$9,517

78.3%

-0.7%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.0-22.0%$201,882$178,754
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.5-23.5%$488,478$83,755
Smarkets 🇬🇧19.6-23.8%$18,779$9,517

21.7%

0.7%

Books we like:
"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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