Odds update every minute | Last updated: 3:45PM EST on Mar 04, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$1,949,905 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸58.0-59.0%$1,949,962

58.5%

2.0%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸41.0-42.0%$1,949,962

41.5%

-2.0%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 49-51. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 3:21PM EST on Mar 04, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$372,572,423 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.2-21.4%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧19.2-20.4%$1,037,346
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$836,679
Smarkets 🇬🇧19.2-21.3%$183,864

21.7%

-1.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.1-16.2%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$1,037,346
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$836,679
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$183,864

18.9%

0.7%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.5-9.7%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.0-11.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧9.1-9.5%$1,037,346
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$836,679

10.4%

0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.7-5.9%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-5.7%$1,037,346
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$836,679
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.7%$183,864

6.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.3-3.4%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.5%$1,037,346
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$836,679
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$183,864

3.6%

0.3%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.3%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$1,037,346
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$836,679
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.8%$183,864

3.5%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.0%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$1,037,346
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$836,679
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$183,864

2.8%

0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,037,346
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$836,679
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$183,864

2.2%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.5%$183,864

1.8%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.0%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$183,864

1.5%

0.2%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$183,864

1.4%

0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.8%$183,864

1.2%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$183,864

0.8%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$183,864

0.7%

-0.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$183,864

0.5%

0.1%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$183,864

0.5%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$360,983,331
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$9,531,479
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$183,864

0.5%

-0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$183,864

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$183,864

0.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$183,864

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$183,864

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$183,864

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$183,864

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,037,346
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$183,864

0.1%

+0.0%

20.4%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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