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Track Record - Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott

Updated Oct 31, 2022

ElectionBettingOdds.com has tracked some 730 different candidate chances across dozens of races between 2016 and October 2022.

How accurate has this site been?

When a candidate favored by bettors loses, it's easy to fall into the trap of thinking the bettors were "wrong". But remember that when bettors give someone, for example, a 65% chance to win -- that also means the bettors give the person a 35% chance to lose.

The following graph shows how closely the betting tracked reality.

The blue line shows what predictions would look like if they were perfect. The orange line shows how often bettors' predictions within different ranges (e.g., between 60-80%) actually came to pass. Where the orange line differs from the blue line, the predictions were off somewhat:

We can see that, using these prediction ranges spanning 20 percentage points, ElectionBettingOdds.com was extremely accurate. For example, out of all candidates who were given between a 20 and 40% chance of winning at 8am on election day, 27.6% of them actually won.

We do also see some systematic "underdog" bias at the edges. For example, for candidates in the 0% to 20% range, bettors gave an average prediction of a 5.2% chance. Yet, only 1.5% of those candidates actually ended up winning. The inverse occurs for highly-favored candidates, who should have been given even higher odds. This bias has been in part caused by regulatory trading limits on bettors at PredictIt, which prevents savvy traders on that market from making much money by correcting such odds.

The graph below holds predictions to a more precise standard -- 10% intervals, with smaller sample sizes.

We can also see that the accuracy of the odds has been improving over time, as the number of races tracked has risen and reduced randomness. For comparison, here was the same graph after our 2018 update, where some 450 candidate chances had been tracked:

How does all the above compare to other outlets? Looking at betting beats listening only to polls, according to several studies, such as this one in Public Opinion Quarterly. Also, a study by the author of Superforecasting got smart people to make predictions for study of their accuracy:

I managed to recruit 284 serious professionals, card-carrying experts whose livelihoods involved analyzing political and economic trends and events... Almost all had postgraduate training; half had PhDs...

In the end:

the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.

Certain groups of pundits - namely ideological ones and those with frequent TV appearances - actually did worse than dart-throwing chimpanzees.

Note: This post has been updated with all elections tracked, up through October 2022. To see the old graphs with only data going up to 2018, see here. For an even older page, with only 2016 data, see here.

To come: an analysis looking at more predictions made by the site over time (say, a week before an election, or a month) -- as opposed to data used in the above graph, which just looks at a single prediction for each candidate, taken on the morning of the election.

As an aside, here were the biggest upsets we've tracked (which is unchanged since the 2018 update.) The following candidates were big underdogs in the betting. All won:

CANDIDATESTATEEBO Probability
CruzOK4.7%
CruzME6.4%
SandersMI8.4%
TrumpWI General Election12.5%
REP SenWI General Election - Senate13.5%
TrumpUSA General Election20.2%
TrumpPA General Election20.6%
SandersIN22.0%
REP SenPA General Election - Senate23.0%
TrumpMI General Election24.8%
SandersMN24.9%
LeaveBrexit24.9%

Below is ElectionBettingOdds.com's full track record, sorted from lowest to highest. Send any questions or comments to Maxim Lott at maxim.lott@gmail.com or at @maximlott on Twitter. The graphs above are based on these data.

YearGeneral/PrimaryStateTypeCANDIDATEEBO ProbabilityWIN?1=yes, 0=no
2022PMIntl.ItalySalvini0.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentCarson0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentFiorina0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryLAPresidentSanders0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryMSPresidentSanders0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryNYPresidentKasich0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryNYPresidentCruz0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryINPresidentKasich0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryWVPresidentKasich0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryWVPresidentCruz0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryORPresidentKasich0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryWAPresidentKasich0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryWAPresidentCruz0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryCAPresidentKasich0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryCAPresidentCruz0.1%Lost0
2016GeneralNationalPresidentJohnson0.1%Lost0
2016GeneralNationalPresidentStein0.1%Lost0
2016GeneralNationalPresidentMcMullin0.1%Lost0
2017PMIntl.UKFarrage0.1%Lost0
2017PMIntl.UKJohnson0.1%Lost0
2017Most SeatsIntl.UKLiberal0.1%Lost0
2020PrimaryNVPresidencyKlobuchar0.1%Lost0
2020PrimaryNVPresidencyYang0.1%Lost0
2020PrimaryNVPresidencySteyer0.1%Lost0
2020PrimaryNVPresidencyGabbard0.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryIAPresidentCarson0.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryIAPresidentFiorina0.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryIAPresidentChristie0.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryOKPresidentCarson0.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryOKPresidentKasich0.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryTNPresidentCarson0.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryORPresidentCruz0.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryIAPresidentOMalley0.3%Lost0
2016PrimarySCPresidentKasich0.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryNVPresidentCarson0.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryALPresidentCarson0.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryALPresidentKasich0.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryALPresidentCruz0.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryCTPresidentCruz0.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryTXPresidentCarson0.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryTXPresidentKasich0.4%Lost0
2017PMIntl.UKDavis0.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentOMalley0.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryGAPresidentSanders0.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryRIPresidentCruz0.5%Lost0
2017PMIntl.NetherlandsPechtold0.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryVAPresidentCarson0.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryVAPresidentCruz0.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryVAPresidentKasich0.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryAZPresidentKasich0.7%Lost0
2022PMIntl.ItalyLetta0.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryTXPresidentSanders0.8%Lost0
2016PrimaryVAPresidentSanders0.8%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentChristie0.9%Lost0
2016PrimarySCPresidentBush0.9%Lost0
2016PrimarySCPresidentCarson0.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryNVPresidentCruz0.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryARPresidentKasich0.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryGAPresidentKasich0.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryMAPresidentCarson0.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryMAPresidentKasich0.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryMAPresidentCruz0.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryALPresidentSanders1.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryTXPresidentRubio1.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryWIPresidentKasich1.0%Lost0
2018GeneralVTSenateRepublican1.0%Lost0
2018SpecialMSSenateDemocrat1.0%Lost0
2020GeneralARSenateDemocrat1.0%Lost0
2020GeneralNESenateDemocrat1.0%Lost0
2020GeneralSDSenateDemocrat1.0%Lost0
2020PrimaryNHPresidencyYang1.0%Lost0
2020PrimaryNHPresidencySteyer1.0%Lost0
2020PrimaryNHPresidencyGabbard1.0%Lost0
2020PrimaryNHPresidencyBloomberg1.0%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencyButtigieg1.0%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencyWarren1.0%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencyKlobuchar1.0%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencyYang1.0%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencySteyer1.0%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencyGabbard1.0%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencyBloomberg1.0%Lost0
2022PMIntl.ItalyDraghi1.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryGAPresidentCarson1.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryCTPresidentKasich1.1%Lost0
2019Intl.Intl.UKCons/Lib Dem coalition1.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryMNPresidentCarson1.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryMNPresidentKasich1.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryTNPresidentSanders1.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryTNPresidentRubio1.2%Lost0
2016PrimarySCPresidentSanders1.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryALPresidentRubio1.3%Lost0
2019Intl.Intl.UKLab/Lib Dem coalition1.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryDEPresidentCruz1.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryNEPresidentKasich1.4%Lost0
2020PrimaryIAPresidencyYang1.4%Lost0
2020PrimaryNVPresidencyWarren1.4%Lost0
2020PrimaryNHPresidencyBiden 1.4%Lost0
2020PrimaryNHPresidencyWarren1.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryDEPresidentKasich1.5%Lost0
2016GeneralTNPresidentClinton1.5%Lost0
2020GeneralWYPresidencyBiden 1.5%Lost0
2020GeneralIDSenateDemocrat1.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryMAPresidentRubio1.6%Lost0
2022PMIntl.HungaryMarki-Zay1.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryRIPresidentKasich1.7%Lost0
2020PrimaryIAPresidencyKlobuchar1.8%Lost0
2016PrimaryFLPresidentCruz1.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryOHPresidentCruz1.9%Lost0
2018GeneralRIGovernorRepublican2.0%Lost0
2020GeneralWYSenateDemocrat2.0%Lost0
2016PrimarySCPresidentCruz2.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryGAPresidentRubio2.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryGAPresidentCruz2.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryTNPresidentCruz2.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryNEPresidentCruz2.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentCruz2.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryMDPresidentCruz2.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryARPresidentRubio2.3%Lost0
2019Intl.Intl.UKLabour Majority2.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryILPresidentKasich2.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryMDPresidentSanders2.4%Lost0
2016GeneralALPresidentClinton2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralLAPresidentClinton2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralMDPresidentTrump2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralMSPresidentClinton2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralNEPresidentClinton2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralOKPresidentClinton2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralWVPresidentClinton2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralWYPresidentClinton2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralIASenateDemocrat2.5%Lost0
2016GeneralMDSenateRepublican2.5%Lost0
2019Intl.Intl.UKCons/Brexit Party Coalition2.5%Lost0
2020GeneralARPresidencyBiden 2.5%Lost0
2020GeneralIDPresidencyBiden 2.5%Lost0
2020GeneralOKPresidencyBiden 2.5%Lost0
2020GeneralWVPresidencyBiden 2.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentClinton2.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryARPresidentCarson2.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryTNPresidentKasich2.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryMEPresidentRubio2.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryIDPresidentRubio2.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryUTPresidentKasich2.7%Lost0
2019Intl.Intl.UKLab/LD/SNP Coalition2.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryPAPresidentCruz3.0%Lost0
2017PMIntl.GermanyScholz3.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryPAPresidentKasich3.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentBush3.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryUTPresidentTrump3.2%Lost0
2019Intl.Intl.UKLab/SNP Coalition3.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryMDPresidentKasich3.5%Lost0
2016GeneralARPresidentClinton3.5%Lost0
2016GeneralIDPresidentClinton3.5%Lost0
2016GeneralKYPresidentClinton3.5%Lost0
2016GeneralMAPresidentTrump3.5%Lost0
2016GeneralNDPresidentClinton3.5%Lost0
2016GeneralVTPresidentTrump3.5%Lost0
2018GeneralMASenateRepublican3.5%Lost0
2018GeneralNESenateRepublican3.5%Lost0
2018GeneralNMSenateRepublican3.5%Lost0
2020GeneralALPresidencyBiden 3.5%Lost0
2020GeneralKYPresidencyBiden 3.5%Lost0
2020GeneralNDPresidencyBiden 3.5%Lost0
2020GeneralSDPresidencyBiden 3.5%Lost0
2020GeneralTNPresidencyBiden 3.5%Lost0
2020GeneralMASenateRepublican3.5%Lost0
2020GeneralRISenateRepublican3.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryDEPresidentSanders3.6%Lost0
2020PrimaryNHPresidencyKlobuchar3.7%Lost0
2020GeneralLAPresidencyBiden 3.9%Lost0
2020GeneralWVSenateDemocrat3.9%Lost0
2016GeneralCAPresidentTrump4.0%Lost0
2016GeneralHIPresidentTrump4.0%Lost0
2016GeneralKSPresidentClinton4.0%Lost0
2016GeneralOHSenateDemocrat4.0%Lost0
2018GeneralAZGovernorRepublican4.0%Lost0
2020GeneralNEPresidencyBiden 4.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryHIPresidentKasich4.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryMIPresidentCruz4.3%Lost0
2018GeneralSCGovernorRepublican4.4%Lost0
2016GeneralDEPresidentTrump4.5%Lost0
2016GeneralILPresidentTrump4.5%Lost0
2016GeneralINPresidentClinton4.5%Lost0
2016GeneralNYPresidentTrump4.5%Lost0
2018GeneralMESenateRepublican4.5%Lost0
2018GeneralPAGovernorRepublican4.5%Lost0
2020GeneralILSenateRepublican4.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentRubio4.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryOKPresidentCruz4.7%Won1
2016PrimaryVAPresidentRubio4.8%Lost0
2016GeneralILSenateRepublican4.9%Lost0
2020GeneralLASenateDemocrat4.9%Lost0
2016GeneralWAPresidentTrump5.0%Lost0
2018GeneralTNGovernorRepublican5.0%Lost0
2020GeneralMSPresidencyBiden 5.0%Lost0
2020GeneralUTPresidencyBiden 5.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryKSPresidentRubio5.2%Lost0
2020PrimaryNVPresidencyBiden 5.3%Lost0
2022PMIntl.FranceLe Pen5.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryPAPresidentSanders5.4%Lost0
2016GeneralMOPresidentClinton5.4%Lost0
2016GeneralNJPresidentTrump5.4%Lost0
2020GeneralNJSenateRepublican5.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryINPresidentCruz5.5%Lost0
2016GeneralAZSenateDemocrat5.5%Lost0
2020GeneralINPresidencyBiden 5.5%Lost0
2020GeneralKSPresidencyBiden 5.5%Lost0
2020GeneralMOPresidencyBiden 5.5%Lost0
2017Most SeatsIntl.UKLabour5.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryMNPresidentCruz5.7%Lost0
2020PrimaryIAPresidencyWarren5.9%Lost0
2016GeneralCTPresidentTrump6.0%Lost0
2016GeneralMTPresidentClinton6.0%Lost0
2016GeneralORPresidentTrump6.0%Lost0
2018GeneralVASenateRepublican6.0%Lost0
2020GeneralMAPresidencyTrump 6.0%Lost0
2020GeneralDESenateRepublican6.0%Lost0
2016PMIntl.FranceLe Pen Final6.2%Lost0
2020PrimaryNVPresidencyButtigieg6.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryMEPresidentCruz6.4%Won1
2016GeneralAKSenateDemocrat6.4%Lost0
2020GeneralDEPresidencyTrump 6.4%Lost0
2020GeneralHIPresidencyTrump 6.4%Lost0
2020GeneralMDPresidencyTrump 6.4%Lost0
2020GeneralRIPresidencyTrump 6.4%Lost0
2020GeneralVTPresidencyTrump 6.4%Lost0
2020GeneralTNSenateDemocrat6.4%Lost0
2016GeneralSDPresidentClinton6.5%Lost0
2016GeneralUTPresidentClinton6.5%Lost0
2016GeneralUTPresidentOTHER6.5%Lost0
2020GeneralCTPresidencyTrump 6.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryIAPresidentRubio6.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryNHPresidentKasich6.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryKYPresidentRubio6.9%Lost0
2018GeneralILGovernorRepublican6.9%Lost0
2020GeneralNJPresidencyTrump 6.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryOKPresidentRubio7.0%Lost0
2017PMIntl.UKFarron7.0%Lost0
2019Intl.Intl.UKConservatives Minority7.2%Lost0
2020GeneralILPresidencyTrump 7.3%Lost0
2016PrimarySCPresidentRubio7.4%Lost0
2020GeneralSCPresidencyBiden 7.4%Lost0
2020GeneralWAPresidencyTrump 7.4%Lost0
2020GeneralALSenateDemocrat7.4%Lost0
2016GeneralSCPresidentClinton7.5%Lost0
2016GeneralCOSenateRepublican7.5%Lost0
2018GeneralWISenateRepublican7.5%Lost0
2016GeneralRIPresidentTrump7.7%Lost0
2020GeneralORSenateRepublican7.8%Lost0
2018GeneralMDGovernorRepublican7.9%Lost0
2018GeneralPASenateRepublican8.0%Lost0
2020GeneralORPresidencyTrump 8.0%Lost0
2020GeneralVASenateRepublican8.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryMIPresidentKasich8.2%Lost0
2020GeneralCAPresidencyTrump 8.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryMIPresidentSanders8.4%Won1
2016PrimaryFLPresidentSanders8.4%Lost0
2020GeneralKYSenateDemocrat8.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryMAPresidentSanders8.5%Lost0
2016GeneralTXPresidentClinton8.5%Lost0
2020PrimaryIAPresidencyButtigieg8.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryNVPresidentRubio8.8%Lost0
2020PrimaryMIPresidencySanders8.8%Lost0
2020GeneralNMSenateRepublican8.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryFLPresidentRubio9.2%Lost0
2020GeneralNYPresidencyTrump 9.3%Lost0
2020GeneralAKPresidencyBiden 9.4%Lost0
2020GeneralNHSenateRepublican9.4%Lost0
2018GeneralMNSenateRepublican9.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryNCPresidentSanders9.8%Lost0
2016PrimaryARPresidentCruz10.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryNYPresidentSanders10.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryDCPresidentCruz10.5%Lost0
2020GeneralMTPresidencyBiden 10.5%Lost0
2020GeneralCOSenateRepublican10.9%Lost0
2016GeneralMNPresidentTrump11.0%Lost0
2020GeneralMSSenateDemocrat11.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryPRPresidentTrump11.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryMSPresidentCruz11.4%Lost0
2018GeneralOHSenateRepublican11.5%Lost0
2018GeneralNMGovernorRepublican11.6%Lost0
2020GeneralCOPresidencyTrump 11.7%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencySanders11.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryLAPresidentCruz11.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryAZPresidentCruz11.9%Lost0
2020GeneralMEPresidencyTrump 11.9%Lost0
2020GeneralKSSenateDemocrat11.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryTXPresidentTrump12.3%Lost0
2016GeneralNMPresidentTrump12.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryWVPresidentClinton12.4%Lost0
2016GeneralWIPresidentTrump12.5%Won1
2017PMIntl.UKCorbyn12.7%Lost0
2020GeneralNMPresidencyTrump 12.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryWIPresidentClinton13.1%Lost0
2020GeneralVAPresidencyTrump 13.2%Lost0
2016GeneralVAPresidentTrump13.3%Lost0
2017PMIntl.NetherlandsWilders13.4%Lost0
2020GeneralTXSenateDemocrat13.4%Lost0
2016GeneralWISenateRepublican13.5%Won1
2016PrimaryMEPresidentKasich13.7%Lost0
2016GeneralGAPresidentClinton13.9%Lost0
2016GeneralFLSenateDemocrat14.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryNCPresidentCruz14.4%Lost0
2016GeneralAKPresidentClinton14.5%Lost0
2018GeneralMEGovernorRepublican14.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryPRPresidentCruz14.7%Lost0
2016GeneralLASenateDemocrat14.8%Lost0
2020GeneralOKSenateDemocrat14.9%Lost0
2019Intl.Intl.UKLabour Minority15.3%Lost0
2018GeneralMIGovernorRepublican15.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryUTPresidentClinton15.9%Lost0
2018GeneralNationalSenateDEM Senate Control16.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryMEPresident(Clinton16.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryAZPresidentSanders16.1%Lost0
2016GeneralMEPresidentTrump16.1%Lost0
2020GeneralNationalPresidencyREP House Control16.7%Lost0
2020PrimaryNHPresidencyButtigieg16.8%Lost0
2018GeneralNJSenateRepublican17.0%Lost0
2020GeneralAKSenateDemocrat17.2%Lost0
2016GeneralNVSenateRepublican18.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryCTPresidentSanders18.6%Lost0
2016GeneralNVPresidentTrump18.8%Lost0
2018GeneralMNGovernorRepublican18.9%Lost0
2018GeneralMISenateRepublican19.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryWIPresidentTrump19.4%Lost0
2018GeneralNHGovernorRepublican19.6%Lost0
2016PrimaryORPresidentClinton19.8%Lost0
2016PrimaryHIPresidentCruz20.0%Lost0
2016GeneralNationalPresidentTrump20.2%Won1
2020PrimaryIAPresidencyBiden 20.3%Lost0
2018GeneralWVSenateRepublican20.5%Lost0
2018GeneralTXSenateRepublican20.5%Lost0
2016GeneralPAPresidentTrump20.6%Won1
2018GeneralORGovernorRepublican21.1%Lost0
2020PrimaryIDPresidencySanders21.4%Lost0
2016PrimaryKSPresidentClinton21.5%Lost0
2016GeneralCOPresidentTrump21.5%Lost0
2020GeneralSCSenateDemocrat21.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryINPresidentSanders22.0%Won1
2018GeneralTNSenateDemocrat22.0%Lost0
2020GeneralMNSenateRepublican22.8%Lost0
2016PrimaryKYPresidentCruz22.9%Lost0
2016GeneralPASenateRepublican23.0%Won1
2020GeneralIAPresidencyBiden 23.0%Lost0
2020GeneralNHPresidencyTrump 23.5%Lost0
2016GeneralMIPresidentTrump24.8%Won1
2016PrimaryMNPresidentSanders24.9%Won1
2016PrimaryDCPresidentKasich24.9%Lost0
2016BrexitIntl.UKLeave24.9%Won1
2016GeneralAZPresidentClinton25.0%Lost0
2016GeneralIAPresidentClinton25.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryCAPresidentSanders25.1%Lost0
2020GeneralAZSenateRepublican25.9%Lost0
2020GeneralMNPresidencyTrump 26.3%Lost0
2018GeneralCTGovernorRepublican27.0%Lost0
2020GeneralOHPresidencyBiden 27.0%Lost0
2020GeneralTXPresidencyBiden 27.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryOHPresidentTrump27.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryIAPresidentSanders27.3%Lost0
2016PresidentIntl.AustriaBellen28.4%Won1
2020GeneralNE2PresidencyTrump 28.8%Lost0
2020GeneralNVPresidencyTrump 28.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryDCPresidentTrump29.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryMNPresidentRubio29.4%Won1
2019Intl.Intl.CanadaScheer PM29.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryIAPresidentCruz30.0%Won1
2016PrimaryHIPresidentTrump30.2%Won1
2016GeneralNHPresidentTrump30.3%Lost0
2016PrimaryILPresidentCruz30.9%Lost0
2018GeneralOKGovernorDemocrat31.5%Lost0
2020GeneralMISenateRepublican31.6%Lost0
2019SpecialKYGovernorDem31.7%Won1
2016PrimaryMOPresidentClinton31.8%Won1
2022PresidentIntl.BrazilBolsonaro31.8%Lost0
2018GeneralNationalHouseREP House Control31.9%Lost0
2020GeneralMIPresidencyTrump 32.2%Lost0
2020GeneralWIPresidencyTrump 32.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryIDPresidentTrump33.2%Lost0
2016GeneralFLPresidentTrump33.2%Won1
2020GeneralIASenateDemocrat33.2%Lost0
2016GeneralINSenateDemocrat33.5%Lost0
2017SpecialMSSenateJones (Dem)33.5%Won1
2020PrimaryWAPresidencySanders33.5%Lost0
2018GeneralIAGovernorRepublican33.6%Won1
2020GeneralMESenateRepublican33.8%Won1
2016GeneralOHPresidentClinton34.0%Lost0
2016GeneralNCSenateDemocrat34.3%Lost0
2018GeneralGAGovernorDemocrat34.8%Lost0
2020GeneralMTSenateDemocrat35.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryDCPresidentRubio35.4%Won1
2018GeneralMTSenateRepublican35.5%Lost0
2018SpecialPAHouseRepublican37.1%Lost0
2018GeneralFLSenateRepublican37.5%Won1
2018GeneralNVSenateRepublican37.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryKSPresidentTrump37.7%Lost0
2020GeneralNationalPresidencyTrump 202038.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryOHPresidentSanders38.1%Lost0
2017GeneralVAGovernorDemocrat38.2%Lost0
2018GeneralFLGovernorRepublican38.4%Won1
2018GeneralWIGovernorRepublican38.6%Lost0
2018GeneralMOSenateDemocrat39.0%Lost0
2020GeneralGAPresidencyBiden 39.5%Won1
2018GeneralNVGovernorRepublican39.8%Lost0
2020GeneralFLPresidencyBiden 40.3%Lost0
2018GeneralOHGovernorRepublican40.8%Won1
2016GeneralMOSenateDemocrat41.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryOKPresidentSanders41.4%Won1
2020GeneralPAPresidencyTrump 41.5%Lost0
2020GeneralGASenateDemocrat41.8%Won1
2016PrimaryRIPresidentSanders42.2%Won1
2020GeneralNCSenateRepublican42.8%Won1
2018GeneralKSGovernorDemocrat43.0%Won1
2020GeneralNationalPresidencyDEM Senate Control44.3%Won1
2020GeneralME2PresidencyBiden 45.0% 0
2016PrimaryHIPresidentRubio45.6%Lost0
2016GeneralNCPresidentTrump45.6%Won1
2016PrimaryMOPresidentCruz46.0%Lost0
2020GeneralGA2SenateRepublican46.6%Lost0
2020GeneralNCPresidencyBiden 47.3%Lost0
2016GeneralNHSenateRepublican48.0%Lost0
2019SpecialLAGovernorRep48.0%Lost0
2016PrimaryILPresidentSanders48.2%Lost0
2018GeneralINSenateRepublican48.5%Won1
2020GeneralAZPresidencyTrump 48.8%Lost0
2016PrimaryARPresidentClinton49.3%Won1
2018SpecialOHHouseDemocrat49.5%Lost0
2018SpecialOHHouseRepublican50.5%Won1
2016PrimaryARPresidentSanders50.7%Lost0
2020GeneralAZPresidencyBiden 51.2%Won1
2016GeneralNHSenateDemocrat51.5%Won1
2018GeneralINSenateDemocrat51.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryILPresidentClinton51.7%Won1
2019SpecialLAGovernorDem51.9%Won1
2020GeneralNCPresidencyTrump 52.7%Won1
2020GeneralGA2SenateDemocrat53.4%Won1
2016PrimaryMOPresidentTrump53.9%Won1
2016GeneralNCPresidentClinton54.4%Lost0
2020GeneralME2PresidencyTrump 55.0% 0
2018GeneralKSGovernorRepublican55.5%Lost0
2020GeneralNationalPresidencyREP Senate Control55.7%Lost0
2016PrimaryKSPresidentCruz57.0%Won1
2020GeneralNCSenateDemocrat57.2%Lost0
2016PrimaryRIPresidentClinton57.7%Lost0
2020GeneralGASenateRepublican58.2%Lost0
2020GeneralPAPresidencyBiden 58.5%Won1
2016PrimaryOKPresidentClinton58.6%Lost0
2016GeneralMOSenateRepublican59.0%Won1
2018GeneralOHGovernorDemocrat59.2%Lost0
2020GeneralFLPresidencyTrump 59.7%Won1
2018GeneralNVGovernorDemocrat60.2%Won1
2020GeneralGAPresidencyTrump 60.5%Lost0
2018GeneralMOSenateRepublican61.0%Won1
2018GeneralWIGovernorDemocrat61.4%Won1
2018GeneralFLGovernorDemocrat61.6%Lost0
2017GeneralVAGovernorDemocrat61.7%Won1
2016PrimaryOHPresidentClinton61.8%Won1
2020GeneralNationalPresidencyBiden 202062.0%Won1
2020PrimaryIAPresidencySanders62.1%Won1
2016PrimaryMNPresidentTrump62.5%Lost0
2018GeneralFLSenateDemocrat62.5%Lost0
2018GeneralNVSenateDemocrat62.5%Won1
2016PrimaryIAPresidentTrump62.8%Lost0
2018SpecialPAHouseDemocrat62.9%Won1
2016PrimaryIDPresidentCruz64.1%Won1
2019Intl.Intl.UKConservatives Majority64.4%Won1
2018GeneralMTSenateDemocrat64.5%Won1
2020GeneralMTSenateRepublican64.9%Won1
2018GeneralGAGovernorRepublican65.2%Won1
2016GeneralNCSenateRepublican65.7%Won1
2016GeneralOHPresidentTrump66.0%Won1
2016GeneralINSenateRepublican66.0%Won1
2020GeneralMESenateDemocrat66.2%Lost0
2018GeneralIAGovernorDemocrat66.4%Lost0
2020PrimaryWAPresidencyBiden 66.4%Won1
2016PrimaryILPresidentTrump66.6%Won1
2016GeneralFLPresidentClinton66.8%Lost0
2020GeneralIASenateRepublican66.8%Won1
2022PresidentIntl.BrazilLulu da Silva67.2%Won1
2020GeneralMIPresidencyBiden 67.8%Won1
2020GeneralWIPresidencyBiden 67.8%Won1
2018GeneralNationalHouseDEM House Control68.0%Won1
2016PrimaryMOPresidentSanders68.1%Lost0
2019SpecialKYGovernorRep68.2%Lost0
2020GeneralMISenateDemocrat68.4%Won1
2018GeneralOKGovernorRepublican68.5%Won1
2019Intl.Intl.CanadaTrudeau PM69.5%Won1
2016GeneralNHPresidentClinton69.7%Won1
2016PrimaryKYPresidentTrump70.1%Won1
2017SpecialMSSenateMoore (Rep)70.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryOHPresidentKasich70.8%Won1
2020GeneralNVPresidencyBiden 71.1%Won1
2020GeneralNE2PresidencyBiden 71.2%Won1
2016PresidentIntl.AustriaHofer71.9%Lost0
2016PrimaryIAPresidentClinton72.4%Won1
2018GeneralCTGovernorDemocrat73.0%Won1
2020GeneralOHPresidencyTrump 73.0%Won1
2020GeneralTXPresidencyTrump 73.0%Won1
2017PMIntl.NetherlandsRutte73.5%Won1
2020GeneralMNPresidencyBiden 73.7%Won1
2016PrimaryPRPresidentRubio73.9%Won1
2020GeneralAZSenateDemocrat74.1%Won1
2016PrimaryCAPresidentClinton74.8%Won1
2016GeneralAZPresidentTrump75.0%Won1
2016GeneralIAPresidentTrump75.0%Won1
2016PrimaryMNPresidentClinton75.1%Lost0
2016BrexitIntl.UKStay75.1%Lost0
2016GeneralMIPresidentClinton75.2%Lost0
2020PrimaryIDPresidencyBiden 75.8%Won1
2020PrimaryNHPresidencySanders76.2%Won1
2020GeneralNHPresidencyBiden 76.5%Won1
2016GeneralNVSenateDemocrat77.0%Won1
2016GeneralPASenateDemocrat77.0%Lost0
2020GeneralIAPresidencyTrump 77.0%Won1
2016PrimaryMEPresidentTrump77.1%Lost0
2016PrimaryINPresidentClinton77.9%Lost0
2018GeneralTNSenateRepublican78.0%Won1
2020GeneralMNSenateDemocrat78.2%Won1
2020GeneralSCSenateRepublican78.3%Won1
2016PrimaryKSPresidentSanders78.5%Won1
2018GeneralORGovernorDemocrat78.9%Won1
2016GeneralCOPresidentClinton79.0%Won1
2016GeneralPAPresidentClinton79.4%Lost0
2016GeneralNationalPresidentClinton79.5%Lost0
2018GeneralWVSenateDemocrat79.5%Won1
2018GeneralTXSenateDemocrat79.5%Won1
2016PrimaryWIPresidentCruz79.6%Won1
2016PrimaryORPresidentSanders80.2%Won1
2018GeneralNHGovernorDemocrat80.4%Won1
2018GeneralMISenateDemocrat81.0%Won1
2018GeneralMNGovernorDemocrat81.1%Won1
2016GeneralNVPresidentClinton81.2%Won1
2016PrimaryCTPresidentClinton81.4%Won1
2016PrimaryNHPresidentTrump82.2%Won1
2016GeneralWISenateDemocrat82.5%Lost0
2018GeneralNJSenateDemocrat83.0%Won1
2020GeneralNationalPresidencyDEM House Control83.3%Won1
2016PrimaryMEPresidentSanders83.8%Won1
2016PrimaryAZPresidentClinton83.9%Won1
2016GeneralMEPresidentClinton83.9%Won1
2018GeneralNationalSenateREP Senate Control83.9%Won1
2016PrimaryUTPresidentSanders84.1%Won1
2018GeneralMIGovernorDemocrat84.6%Won1
2020GeneralOKSenateRepublican85.1%Won1
2016GeneralLASenateRepublican85.2%Won1
2016PrimaryNCPresidentTrump85.5%Won1
2016GeneralAKPresidentTrump85.5%Won1
2018GeneralMEGovernorDemocrat85.5%Won1
2016GeneralFLSenateRepublican85.9%Won1
2016PrimaryARPresidentTrump86.0%Won1
2016GeneralGAPresidentTrump86.1%Won1
2017PMIntl.UKMay86.2%Won1
2020PrimaryNVPresidencySanders86.5%Won1
2020GeneralTXSenateRepublican86.6%Won1
2016GeneralVAPresidentClinton86.7%Won1
2020GeneralVAPresidencyBiden 86.8%Won1
2016PrimaryWIPresidentSanders86.9%Won1
2016GeneralUTPresidentTrump87.0%Won1
2020GeneralNMPresidencyBiden 87.3%Won1
2016PrimaryMIPresidentTrump87.4%Won1
2016PrimaryAZPresidentTrump87.4%Won1
2016GeneralWIPresidentClinton87.5%Lost0
2020PrimarySCPresidencyBiden 87.5%Won1
2016PrimaryWVPresidentSanders87.6%Won1
2016GeneralNMPresidentClinton87.7%Won1
2016PrimaryOKPresidentTrump87.8%Lost0
2016PrimaryTXPresidentCruz87.9%Won1
2016PrimaryLAPresidentTrump88.0%Won1
2020GeneralMEPresidencyBiden 88.1%Won1
2020GeneralKSSenateRepublican88.1%Won1
2020GeneralCOPresidencyBiden 88.3%Won1
2018GeneralNMGovernorDemocrat88.4%Won1
2016PrimarySCPresidentTrump88.5%Won1
2016PrimaryMSPresidentTrump88.5%Won1
2018GeneralOHSenateDemocrat88.5%Won1
2022PMIntl.HungaryOrban88.6%Won1
2020GeneralMSSenateRepublican88.7%Won1
2016PrimaryFLPresidentTrump88.8%Won1
2016GeneralMNPresidentClinton89.0%Won1
2020GeneralCOSenateDemocrat89.1%Won1
2020GeneralMTPresidencyTrump 89.5%Won1
2016PrimaryNYPresidentClinton89.6%Won1
2016PrimaryNVPresidentTrump90.1%Won1
2016PrimaryNCPresidentClinton90.1%Won1
2018GeneralMNSenateDemocrat90.5%Won1
2020GeneralAKPresidencyTrump90.6%Won1
2020GeneralNHSenateDemocrat90.6%Won1
2020GeneralNYPresidencyBiden 90.7%Won1
2020GeneralNMSenateDemocrat91.1%Won1
2020PrimaryMIPresidencyBiden 91.1%Won1
2016PrimaryMIPresidentClinton91.5%Lost0
2016PrimaryFLPresidentClinton91.5%Won1
2016GeneralTXPresidentTrump91.5%Won1
2020GeneralKYSenateRepublican91.6%Won1
2016PrimaryMAPresidentClinton91.7%Won1
2020GeneralCAPresidencyBiden 91.7%Won1
2018GeneralPASenateDemocrat92.0%Won1
2020GeneralORPresidencyBiden 92.0%Won1
2020GeneralVASenateDemocrat92.0%Won1
2018GeneralMDGovernorDemocrat92.1%Won1
2020GeneralORSenateDemocrat92.2%Won1
2016GeneralRIPresidentClinton92.3%Won1
2016GeneralSCPresidentTrump92.5%Won1
2016GeneralCOSenateDemocrat92.5%Won1
2018GeneralWISenateDemocrat92.5%Won1
2020GeneralSCPresidencyTrump 92.6%Won1
2020GeneralWAPresidencyBiden 92.6%Won1
2020GeneralALSenateRepublican92.6%Won1
2020GeneralILPresidencyBiden 92.7%Won1
2020GeneralAKSenateRepublican92.8%Won1
2018GeneralVASenateDemocrat93.0%Won1
2018GeneralILGovernorDemocrat93.1%Won1
2020GeneralNJPresidencyBiden 93.1%Won1
2016GeneralORPresidentClinton93.5%Won1
2016GeneralSDPresidentTrump93.5%Won1
2020GeneralCTPresidencyBiden 93.5%Won1
2016GeneralAKSenateRepublican93.6%Won1
2020GeneralDEPresidencyBiden 93.6%Won1
2020GeneralHIPresidencyBiden 93.6%Won1
2020GeneralRIPresidencyBiden 93.6%Won1
2020GeneralVTPresidencyBiden 93.6%Won1
2020GeneralTNSenateRepublican93.6%Won1
2016PrimaryTNPresidentTrump93.8%Won1
2016PrimaryVAPresidentTrump93.9%Won1
2016PrimaryPAPresidentTrump93.9%Won1
2016PMIntl.FranceMacron Final93.9%Won1
2016GeneralCTPresidentClinton94.0%Won1
2016GeneralMTPresidentTrump94.0%Won1
2018GeneralTNGovernorDemocrat94.0%Won1
2018GeneralAZGovernorDemocrat94.0%Won1
2020GeneralMAPresidencyBiden 94.0%Won1
2020GeneralDESenateDemocrat94.0%Won1
2016PrimaryUTPresidentCruz94.1%Won1
2016PrimaryMDPresidentTrump94.3%Won1
2016PrimaryINPresidentTrump94.4%Won1
2016GeneralAZSenateRepublican94.5%Won1
2020GeneralINPresidencyTrump 94.5%Won1
2020GeneralKSPresidencyTrump 94.5%Won1
2020GeneralMOPresidencyTrump 94.5%Won1
2022PMIntl.FranceMacron94.5%Won1
2016PrimaryPAPresidentClinton94.6%Won1
2016GeneralMOPresidentTrump94.6%Won1
2016GeneralNJPresidentClinton94.6%Won1
2020GeneralMDPresidencyBiden 94.6%Won1
2020GeneralNJSenateDemocrat94.6%Won1
2017Most SeatsIntl.UKConservative94.8%Won1
2016GeneralWAPresidentClinton95.0%Won1
2020GeneralMSPresidencyTrump 95.0%Won1
2020GeneralUTPresidencyTrump 95.0%Won1
2016GeneralILSenateDemocrat95.1%Won1
2020GeneralLASenateRepublican95.1%Won1
2016PrimaryGAPresidentTrump95.3%Won1
2016GeneralDEPresidentClinton95.5%Won1
2016GeneralILPresidentClinton95.5%Won1
2016GeneralINPresidentTrump95.5%Won1
2016GeneralNYPresidentClinton95.5%Won1
2018GeneralMESenateDemocrat95.5%Won1
2018GeneralPAGovernorDemocrat95.5%Won1
2020GeneralILSenateDemocrat95.5%Won1
2018GeneralSCGovernorDemocrat95.6%Won1
2016GeneralCAPresidentClinton96.0%Won1
2016GeneralHIPresidentClinton96.0%Won1
2016GeneralKSPresidentTrump96.0%Won1
2016GeneralOHSenateRepublican96.0%Won1
2020GeneralNEPresidencyTrump 96.0%Won1
2020GeneralRISenateDemocrat96.0%Won1
2020GeneralLAPresidencyTrump 96.1%Won1
2020GeneralWVSenateRepublican96.1%Won1
2016PrimaryDEPresidentClinton96.4%Won1
2016PrimaryNEPresidentTrump96.4%Won1
2016GeneralARPresidentTrump96.5%Won1
2016GeneralIDPresidentTrump96.5%Won1
2016GeneralKYPresidentTrump96.5%Won1
2016GeneralMAPresidentClinton96.5%Won1
2016GeneralNDPresidentTrump96.5%Won1
2016GeneralVTPresidentClinton96.5%Won1
2018GeneralMASenateDemocrat96.5%Won1
2018GeneralNESenateDemocrat96.5%Won1
2018GeneralNMSenateDemocrat96.5%Won1
2020GeneralALPresidencyTrump 96.5%Won1
2020GeneralKYPresidencyTrump 96.5%Won1
2020GeneralNDPresidencyTrump 96.5%Won1
2020GeneralSDPresidencyTrump 96.5%Won1
2020GeneralTNPresidencyTrump 96.5%Won1
2020GeneralMASenateDemocrat96.5%Won1
2016PrimaryMAPresidentTrump96.6%Won1
2017PMIntl.GermanyMerkel96.6%Won1
2016PrimaryNHPresidentSanders96.9%Won1
2016GeneralMSPresidentTrump97.0%Won1
2016GeneralMDSenateDemocrat97.0%Won1
2016PrimaryDEPresidentTrump97.1%Won1
2016PrimaryMDPresidentClinton97.5%Won1
2016GeneralALPresidentTrump97.5%Won1
2016GeneralLAPresidentTrump97.5%Won1
2016GeneralMDPresidentClinton97.5%Won1
2016GeneralNEPresidentTrump97.5%Won1
2016GeneralOKPresidentTrump97.5%Won1
2016GeneralWVPresidentTrump97.5%Won1
2016GeneralWYPresidentTrump97.5%Won1
2016GeneralIASenateRepublican97.5%Won1
2020GeneralARPresidencyTrump 97.5%Won1
2020GeneralIDPresidencyTrump 97.5%Won1
2020GeneralOKPresidencyTrump 97.5%Won1
2020GeneralWVPresidencyTrump 97.5%Won1
2016PrimaryRIPresidentTrump97.8%Won1
2018GeneralRIGovernorDemocrat98.0%Won1
2020GeneralWYSenateRepublican98.0%Won1
2022PMIntl.ItalyMeloni98.4%Won1
2016GeneralTNPresidentTrump98.5%Won1
2020GeneralWYPresidencyTrump 98.5%Won1
2020GeneralIDSenateRepublican98.5%Won1
2016PrimaryCTPresidentTrump98.6%Won1
2016PrimarySCPresidentClinton98.7%Won1
2016PrimaryTNPresidentClinton98.7%Won1
2016PrimaryALPresidentTrump98.8%Won1
2018GeneralVTSenateDemocrat99.0%Won1
2018SpecialMSSenateRepublican99.0%Won1
2020GeneralARSenateRepublican99.0%Won1
2020GeneralNESenateRepublican99.0%Won1
2020GeneralSDSenateRepublican99.0%Won1
2016PrimaryTXPresidentClinton99.2%Won1
2016PrimaryVAPresidentClinton99.2%Won1
2016PrimaryALPresidentClinton99.4%Won1
2016PrimaryGAPresidentClinton99.4%Won1
2016PrimaryORPresidentTrump99.6%Won1
2016PrimaryLAPresidentClinton99.9%Won1
2016PrimaryMSPresidentClinton99.9%Won1
2016PrimaryNYPresidentTrump99.9%Won1
2016PrimaryWVPresidentTrump99.9%Won1
2016PrimaryWAPresidentTrump99.9%Won1
2016PrimaryCAPresidentTrump99.9%Won1

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