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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$994,380,349 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.1-24.2%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸29.4-29.5%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧29.9-34.0%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧30.3-34.0%$3,818

28.8%

1.4%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.0-8.2%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.4-8.5%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-10.6%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.0-11.9%$3,818

9.9%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.7-3.8%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.1-6.2%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-6.5%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-6.3%$3,818

4.6%

-1.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.5-3.6%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.8-3.9%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.9%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-5.7%$3,818

4.5%

-0.1%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.9-3.0%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.5-3.6%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-7.7%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-7.4%$3,818

4.4%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.4-4.5%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.8%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-7.4%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-6.1%$3,818

4.2%

-0.9%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-2.1%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-3.4%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-3.5%$3,818

2.3%

0.1%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.5%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.1-3.2%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-6.3%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-4.5%$3,818

2.2%

-0.3%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.5-1.6%$36,753,583
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,426,689
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.5%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-4.5%$3,818

2.0%

-0.9%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-1.1%$36,753,583
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-25.0%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.2%$3,818

1.2%

-0.2%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$36,753,583

0.9%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.9%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-1.0%$36,753,583

0.8%

0.1%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$36,753,583

0.6%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.4%$36,753,583

0.5%

-0.4%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$955,163,732
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$36,753,583
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$49,895
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$3,818

0.4%

-0.2%

32.7%


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