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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,155,357,221 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎26.8-26.9%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧30.8-33.8%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧31.3-33.6%$4,988

28.5%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.7-8.9%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.4-9.5%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧10.6-11.1%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.6-12.2%$4,988

10.4%

0.3%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.9-8.0%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.3-7.0%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.9%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-5.9%$4,988

6.9%

1.6%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.4-4.5%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.5-5.6%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧5.0-11.6%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-10.0%$4,988

6.4%

-0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.7-3.9%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.3-5.5%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-7.1%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-7.1%$4,988

6.0%

-0.8%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.3%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.7-4.0%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-6.5%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-5.9%$4,988

4.3%

-0.5%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.0%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.8%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.8%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-3.6%$4,988

1.8%

-0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.2-1.4%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.5%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-4.3%$4,988

1.8%

-0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.9-2.0%$43,798,115
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,579,330
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.4%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-3.5%$4,988

1.2%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.5%$43,798,115
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.2%$4,988

0.9%

-0.1%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$43,798,115

0.9%

-0.1%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$43,798,115

0.8%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.3%$43,798,115

0.6%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.3-0.5%$43,798,115

0.6%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,108,925,029
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$43,798,115
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$54,822
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$4,988

0.4%

-0.0%

28.6%


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