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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,206,677,302 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.0-24.1%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧27.0-29.0%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧27.4-29.0%$4,996

25.9%

0.5%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.9-9.0%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧10.9-12.5%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.1-12.8%$4,996

11.5%

0.4%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.6-9.7%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.5-8.7%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-11.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-6.9%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.7-6.7%$4,996

8.1%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.2-4.3%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.6-4.7%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-11.6%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-10.0%$4,996

5.9%

0.4%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.9-5.0%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-4.1%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-5.4%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.3-5.4%$4,996

4.1%

-1.3%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-2.7%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.4-3.5%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-4.3%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-4.3%$4,996

3.6%

-0.5%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.1-2.3%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-20.0%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-10.0%$4,996

2.5%

0.7%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.1%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-3.3%$4,996

1.8%

-0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.2%$48,810,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,746,935
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.2%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-4.2%$4,996

1.8%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.5-1.6%$48,810,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-9.5%$4,996

0.9%

+0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.9%$48,810,856

0.9%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$48,810,856

0.6%

-0.1%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$48,810,856

0.6%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$48,810,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-97.1%$60,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.4%$4,996

0.5%

0.2%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$1,155,065,249
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$48,810,856

0.5%

-0.0%

30.7%


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