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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,003,239,656 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.6-24.7%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸29.0-29.3%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧27.4-33.8%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧27.4-33.8%$3,818

28.3%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.6-7.7%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.4-8.5%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-10.6%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.0-11.9%$3,818

9.8%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-3.7%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.8-3.9%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.9%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-5.9%$3,818

4.5%

+0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.9-3.1%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.5-3.6%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-7.4%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-7.4%$3,818

4.4%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-3.7%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.4-5.5%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-6.5%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-6.3%$3,818

4.4%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.2%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.8%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-7.4%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-6.1%$3,818

4.1%

+0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.5%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.9-2.0%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-3.4%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-3.5%$3,818

2.3%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.4%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-6.3%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-4.5%$3,818

2.1%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.5-1.6%$37,094,386
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,430,762
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.5%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-4.5%$3,818

2.0%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-1.1%$37,094,386
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-25.0%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.2%$3,818

1.2%

+0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$37,094,386

0.9%

+0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.7%$37,094,386

0.7%

-0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$37,094,386

0.6%

-0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$37,094,386

0.5%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$963,707,729
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$37,094,386
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$50,144
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$3,818

0.4%

+0.0%

33.9%


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