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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$4,888,873 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸68.0-70.0%$3,297,990
Polymarket 🌎68.0-70.0%$1,590,883

69.0%

-2.8%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸30.0-32.0%$3,297,990
Polymarket 🌎30.0-32.0%$1,590,883

31.0%

2.8%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$330,845 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$184,026
Betfair 🇬🇧54.6-55.9%$144,804
Smarkets 🇬🇧53.8-56.5%$1,919

54.6%

-0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$184,026
Betfair 🇬🇧42.4-43.9%$144,804
Smarkets 🇬🇧41.3-44.6%$1,919

44.2%

0.2%

1.2%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$166,122,561 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎30.0-31.0%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧27.0-27.4%$819,936
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$606,456
Smarkets 🇬🇧27.0-27.4%$140,481

28.4%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧17.5-18.5%$819,936
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$606,456
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.5-18.9%$140,481

18.9%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-8.0%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-8.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧5.7-8.0%$819,936
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$606,456
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-9.5%$140,481

7.1%

0.3%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.9-4.0%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.8%$819,936
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$606,456

4.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.2-3.3%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$819,936
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$606,456
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.2%$140,481

2.8%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.4%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$819,936
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$606,456
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$140,481

2.8%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.0%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-3.1%$819,936
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$606,456
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$140,481

2.8%

0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.3%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-2.3%$819,936
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$606,456
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$140,481

1.9%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$140,481

1.8%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.1%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.1%$140,481

1.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.7%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$140,481

1.4%

-0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.4%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$140,481

1.2%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$140,481

0.8%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$140,481

0.7%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-4.3%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-4.3%$140,481

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$140,481

0.6%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$140,481

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$140,481

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$161,175,987
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,379,701
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$140,481

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$140,481

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$140,481

0.3%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$140,481

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$140,481

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$819,936
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$140,481

0.1%

-0.0%

19.9%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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