Odds update every minute | Last updated: 8:42AM EDT on May 02, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$146,612,957 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎44.5-45.5%$119,940,431
Betfair 🇬🇧45.5-45.9%$19,164,412
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.1-46.1%$4,596,240
Smarkets 🇬🇧44.3-46.3%$2,912,718

45.4%

0.7%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎43.5-44.5%$119,940,431
Betfair 🇬🇧41.3-41.7%$19,164,412
PredictIt 🇺🇸49.0-50.0%$4,596,240
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.7-44.6%$2,912,718

44.7%

-0.6%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-4.4%$119,940,431
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.4%$19,164,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-3.1%$2,912,718

3.4%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.5-4.0%$119,940,431
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-2.8%$19,164,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.6%$2,912,718

2.9%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.3%$119,940,431
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$19,164,412
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$4,596,240
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$2,912,718

1.9%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$119,940,431
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$19,164,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$2,912,718

0.8%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$119,940,431
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$19,164,412
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$2,912,718

0.8%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-1.0%$119,940,431
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$19,164,412
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,596,240
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$2,912,718

0.8%

-0.0%
Electoral College (estimate: 276-262. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 8:02AM EDT on May 02, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$22,856,641 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎22.0-23.0%$18,449,602
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$3,634,363
Betfair 🇬🇧15.6-16.9%$693,520
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.7-17.9%$79,157

19.4%

-0.2%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.0-7.0%$18,449,602
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$3,634,363
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-8.3%$693,520
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.1-9.5%$79,157

9.0%

-0.2%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.3-7.4%$18,449,602
Betfair 🇬🇧8.0-8.3%$693,520
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.1-9.5%$79,157

7.8%

1.1%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.4%$18,449,602
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-6.1%$693,520
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.7%$79,157

5.7%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$18,449,602
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,634,363
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$693,520
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.0-5.4%$79,157

4.6%

0.1%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-3.9%$18,449,602
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$3,634,363
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.5%$693,520
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-3.1%$79,157

3.3%

0.4%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-3.3%$18,449,602
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,634,363
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.9%$693,520
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.3%$79,157

3.1%

0.2%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.8%$18,449,602
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,634,363
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.5%$693,520

2.7%

-0.5%

44.6%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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