Odds update every minute | Last updated: 8:26PM EST on Nov 15, 2025

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will US Government shutdown
last beyond Nov 15?Will the US Government shutdown last beyond Nov 15?

$51,706,779 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎100.0-100.0%$40,223,767
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-100.0%$11,483,012

100.0%

-0.0%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$40,223,767
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-100.0%$11,483,012

0.0%

-0.0%
Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$3,547,187 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸75.0-76.0%$2,348,070
Polymarket 🌎76.0-77.0%$1,199,121

76.0%

0.5%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$2,348,070
Polymarket 🌎23.0-24.0%$1,199,121

24.0%

-0.5%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$124,665,165 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎28.0-29.0%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸30.0-31.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧25.6-26.0%$703,177
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$440,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.0-27.0%$120,533

27.7%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.0-19.0%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸20.0-21.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧16.7-16.9%$703,177
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$440,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧15.2-17.2%$120,533

18.7%

0.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.0-9.0%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-7.1%$703,177
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-8.0%$440,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-7.4%$120,533

6.9%

-0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.5-3.8%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.7%$703,177
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$440,329

4.0%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-2.8%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$703,177
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$440,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$120,533

2.9%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.9%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$703,177
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$440,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$120,533

2.4%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.0%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$703,177
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$440,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-2.0%$120,533

2.0%

-0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$703,177
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$440,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$120,533

2.0%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$120,533

1.7%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.9%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.5%$120,533

1.6%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.3%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$120,533

1.5%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.8%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-2.0%$120,533

1.4%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$120,533

0.8%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.4%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$120,533

0.8%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.1%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$120,533

0.7%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$120,533

0.5%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$120,964,782
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$2,439,848
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$120,533

0.4%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$120,533

0.4%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-8.7%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.0%$120,533

0.4%

-0.1%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$120,533

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$120,533

0.3%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$120,533

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$120,533

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$703,177
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$120,533

0.2%

+0.0%

22.0%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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