Odds update every minute | Last updated: 10:23PM EST on Jan 12, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$8,471,481 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸67.0-69.0%$5,993,946
Polymarket 🌎73.0-74.0%$2,488,321

70.8%

0.3%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸31.0-33.0%$5,993,946
Polymarket 🌎26.0-27.0%$2,488,321

29.3%

-0.3%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$357,336 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$206,709
Betfair 🇬🇧54.9-55.6%$148,708
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.0-56.5%$1,919

54.7%

-0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$206,709
Betfair 🇬🇧43.1-43.9%$148,708
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.0-45.0%$1,919

44.5%

-0.0%

0.8%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$188,918,244 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎28.0-29.0%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧27.0-27.4%$886,336
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$665,176
Smarkets 🇬🇧27.0-27.4%$153,661

28.0%

0.5%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.0-19.0%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧18.2-18.5%$886,336
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$665,176
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.2-18.5%$153,661

19.4%

-0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎10.1-10.3%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-7.4%$886,336
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$665,176

8.5%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-8.0%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-7.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-6.9%$886,336
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$665,176
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-8.0%$153,661

7.0%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.4%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$886,336
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$665,176
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$153,661

3.3%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$886,336
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$665,176
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$153,661

2.7%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.4%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.8%$886,336
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$665,176
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$153,661

2.6%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$153,661

2.2%

0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.5%$886,336
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$665,176
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$153,661

1.8%

0.2%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.1%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$153,661

1.8%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-1.8%$153,661

1.6%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.2%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$153,661

1.1%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$153,661

0.8%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.3%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.1%$153,661

0.8%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$153,661

0.7%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$153,661

0.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$182,607,071
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$4,613,348
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.4%$153,661

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$153,661

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$153,661

0.3%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$153,661

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$153,661

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$153,661

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$153,661

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$886,336
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$153,661

0.1%

-0.0%

15.2%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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