Odds update every minute | Last updated: 9:40PM EDT on Oct 17, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$2,245,058,578 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎61.1-61.2%$2,053,959,455
Betfair 🇬🇧58.0-58.3%$120,351,085
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.6-54.5%$39,323,367
Kalshi 🇺🇸57.0-58.0%$23,778,916
Smarkets 🇬🇧57.7-58.3%$7,806,085

57.8%

1.8%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎38.2-38.3%$2,053,959,455
Betfair 🇬🇧40.3-40.7%$120,351,085
PredictIt 🇺🇸44.0-45.0%$39,323,367
Kalshi 🇺🇸42.0-43.0%$23,778,916
Smarkets 🇬🇧40.9-41.9%$7,806,085

41.4%

-1.8%

0.8%
Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 226-312. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 9:17PM EDT on Oct 17, 2024
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
House Control 2024House Control 2024

$973,260 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎51.0-52.0%$883,260
Kalshi 🇺🇸48.8-50.7%$90,000

50.6%

4.6%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎48.0-49.0%$883,260
Kalshi 🇺🇸49.8-50.7%$90,000

49.4%

-4.4%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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