Odds update every minute | Last updated: 6:28PM EDT on Oct 15, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$2,095,468,910 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎57.4-57.5%$1,921,554,906
Betfair 🇬🇧56.9-57.3%$114,234,834
PredictIt 🇺🇸50.9-51.9%$38,909,254
Kalshi 🇺🇸55.0-56.0%$13,117,577
Smarkets 🇬🇧56.8-57.5%$7,710,197

55.7%

1.7%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎41.9-42.0%$1,921,554,906
Betfair 🇬🇧41.2-41.5%$114,234,834
PredictIt 🇺🇸48.0-49.0%$38,909,254
Kalshi 🇺🇸43.0-44.0%$13,117,577
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.0-42.4%$7,710,197

43.5%

-1.9%

0.8%
Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 232-306. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 5:59PM EDT on Oct 15, 2024
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
House Control 2024House Control 2024

$904,656 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎54.0-56.0%$849,656
Kalshi 🇺🇸54.0-56.0%$55,000

55.0%

-0.5%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎44.0-46.0%$849,656
Kalshi 🇺🇸44.0-46.0%$55,000

45.0%

0.5%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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