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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$4,479,062 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸75.0-76.0%$2,946,194
Polymarket 🌎73.0-75.0%$1,532,868

74.8%

-0.7%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$2,946,194
Polymarket 🌎25.0-27.0%$1,532,868

25.3%

0.8%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$304,800 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸54.0-55.0%$167,443
Betfair 🇬🇧54.9-55.2%$135,438
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.0-56.2%$1,919

54.9%

0.2%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$167,443
Betfair 🇬🇧43.5-43.9%$135,438
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.4-45.0%$1,919

44.3%

-0.1%

0.8%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$152,671,575 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎29.0-30.0%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧27.0-27.4%$791,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$565,570
Smarkets 🇬🇧26.0-27.4%$134,960

28.1%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸20.0-21.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.2%$791,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$565,570
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.9-19.2%$134,960

19.1%

-0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-8.0%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-5.9%$791,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$565,570
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.7%$134,960

6.3%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-3.9%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.4%$791,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$565,570

3.9%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.6%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.5%$791,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$565,570
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$134,960

3.0%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.6%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-3.3%$791,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$565,570
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$134,960

3.0%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-3.9%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$791,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$565,570
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$134,960

2.8%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.6%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$791,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$565,570
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.3%$134,960

2.3%

-0.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-4.8%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.4%$134,960

2.0%

0.9%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.1%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.2%$134,960

1.7%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.6%$134,960

1.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.8%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.1%$134,960

1.5%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.8%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.8%$134,960

1.4%

0.2%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$134,960

0.9%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$134,960

0.8%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$134,960

0.7%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$148,075,293
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,104,013
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$134,960

0.4%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$134,960

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$134,960

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$134,960

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$134,960

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$134,960

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$134,960

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$791,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$134,960

0.2%

-0.0%

18.4%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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