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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$4,896,484 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸68.0-70.0%$3,305,216
Polymarket 🌎69.0-71.0%$1,591,268

69.5%

-2.0%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸30.0-32.0%$3,305,216
Polymarket 🌎29.0-31.0%$1,591,268

30.5%

2.0%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$330,545 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$184,026
Betfair 🇬🇧54.6-55.9%$144,600
Smarkets 🇬🇧53.8-56.5%$1,919

54.6%

-0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$184,026
Betfair 🇬🇧42.4-43.9%$144,600
Smarkets 🇬🇧41.3-44.6%$1,919

44.2%

0.2%

1.2%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$166,146,631 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎30.0-31.0%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧27.0-27.4%$819,953
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$606,463
Smarkets 🇬🇧27.0-27.4%$141,828

28.4%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧17.5-18.5%$819,953
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$606,463
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.5-18.9%$141,828

18.9%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-8.0%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-8.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧5.7-8.0%$819,953
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$606,463
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-9.5%$141,828

7.1%

0.3%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.9-4.0%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.8%$819,953
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$606,463

4.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.2-3.3%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$819,953
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$606,463
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.2%$141,828

2.8%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.4%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$819,953
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$606,463
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$141,828

2.8%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-2.0%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-3.1%$819,953
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$606,463
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$141,828

2.8%

0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.3%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-2.3%$819,953
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$606,463
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$141,828

1.9%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$141,828

1.8%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.1%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$141,828

1.7%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.7%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$141,828

1.4%

-0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.4%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$141,828

1.2%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$141,828

0.8%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$141,828

0.7%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$141,828

0.6%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-4.3%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-4.3%$141,828

0.6%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$141,828

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$141,828

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$161,198,995
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,379,859
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$141,828

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$141,828

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$141,828

0.3%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$141,828

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$141,828

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$819,953
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$141,828

0.1%

-0.0%

19.9%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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