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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Next UK Prime MinisterSpecifically, the winner of the final Conservative leadership vote in the UK, who is nearly certain to also become prime minister.

$9,217,938 bet so far

Truss details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧90.5-91.4%$6,515,027$6,515,027
Smarkets 🇬🇧88.9-89.7%$2,535,649$2,535,649
Polymarket 🌎94.0-96.0%$167,262$167,262

90.6%

0.4%
Sunak details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧8.7-9.1%$6,515,027$6,515,027
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.2-10.4%$2,535,649$2,535,649
Polymarket 🌎4.0-6.0%$167,262$167,262

9.2%

-0.0%
Mordaunt details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$6,515,027$6,515,027
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,535,649$2,535,649
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$167,262$167,262

0.1%

-0.0%
Braverman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$6,515,027$6,515,027
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$2,535,649$2,535,649

0.0%

-0.3%
Badenoch details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$6,515,027$6,515,027
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$2,535,649$2,535,649
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$167,262$167,262

0.0%

-0.0%
Tugendhat details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$6,515,027$6,515,027
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$2,535,649$2,535,649
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$167,262$167,262

0.0%

-0.0%


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