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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$394,536,567 bet so far
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎96.6-96.7%$277,975,645
PredictIt 🇺🇸93.0-94.0%$79,329,541
Betfair 🇬🇧97.1-98.0%$34,727,536
Smarkets 🇬🇧97.0-97.9%$2,513,176

96.3%

2.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.4%$277,975,645
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$79,329,541
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$34,727,536
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$2,513,176

1.2%

-1.6%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$277,975,645
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$79,329,541
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.9%$34,727,536
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$2,513,176

1.1%

-0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$277,975,645
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$79,329,541
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$34,727,536
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$2,513,176

0.7%

-0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$277,975,645
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$79,329,541
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$34,727,536
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$2,513,176

0.3%

-0.2%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$277,975,645
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$34,727,536
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$2,513,176

0.1%

-0.0%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$277,975,645
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$79,329,541
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$34,727,536
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$2,513,176

0.1%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$79,329,541
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$34,727,536
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$2,513,176

0.1%

+0.0%

0.2%



Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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