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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Electability -- Chance of Winning if Nominated
PAGE DESCRIPTION: The chance that each candidate will win the general election IF he or she wins the party nomination. Calculated by dividing each candidate's general election odds by nomination odds. Uses apples-to-apples comparisons only, using only markets that have both general and nomination chance (currently, Betfair and Smarkets.)
EFFICIENCY NOTE: This electability page excludes candidates with under 4% nomination odds, because trading noise causes dramatic swings for those. Candidates with nomination odds between 4% and 10% are shown in GRAY; take those with grain of salt, and keep in mind that a 1 percentage point market inefficiency in general election odds for such candidates changes their electability score by 10 to 25 points.
CAVEAT: While these numbers generally show how "electable" a candidate is, an exception is when a party's nomination pick depends on how strong its position is that year. Perhaps a party is more likely to pick Candidate A in a year when the party is popular. In that case, the odds on this page would suggest not that Candidate A is electable, but rather that he or she will be picked in an "electable" year.

Democrats - 2024Chances of Democratic candidates winning 2024 U.S. presidential election, assuming they are nominated

64.7%

0.9%

63.1%

-0.2%

46.1%

1.1%


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