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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$1,138,160 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸36.7-37.6%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧40.0-41.0%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧41.7-45.5%$134,472

38.5%

-0.5%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.9-24.8%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧16.9-17.5%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.9-18.9%$134,472

22.3%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.4-7.3%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧8.7-9.5%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.7-10.4%$134,472

7.5%

0.1%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.6-5.5%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.7%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-8.7%$134,472

5.7%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.8%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-4.5%$134,472

3.3%

+0.0%
TimScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.3%$134,472

3.2%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.8%$134,472

2.9%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.8%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.8%$134,472

2.9%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.6%$134,472

2.2%

0.1%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.5%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.5%$134,472

2.0%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.7%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-4.0%$134,472

2.0%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.8%$134,472

1.8%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.7%$134,472

1.8%

+0.0%
RickScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.8%$803,680
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.5%$134,472

1.2%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.3%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.3%$134,472

1.1%

0.3%
Crenshaw details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.4%$200,008
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.7%$134,472

1.1%

-0.0%

0.6%




Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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