Odds update every minute | Last updated: 9:28PM EDT on May 29, 2023

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$4,770,488 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧64.9-65.8%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧67.9-70.3%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.0-53.9%$1,088,674$0

65.5%

0.6%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧23.8-24.4%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-25.6%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸30.7-32.5%$1,088,674$0

24.1%

-0.7%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.9%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-3.1%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,088,674$0

2.3%

0.2%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.5%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.5-7.4%$1,088,674$0

2.1%

-0.3%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,088,674$0

1.0%

0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$3,219,082$1,965,071

0.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.7%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,674$0

0.9%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,674$0

0.7%

0.1%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,088,674$0

0.6%

-0.6%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,674$0

0.4%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.5%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,674$0

0.3%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,674$0

0.2%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,674$0

0.1%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820

0.1%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,674$0

0.1%

-0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$462,732$91,820

0.1%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-3.3%$3,219,082$1,965,071
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,674$0

0.0%

-0.0%

0.8%



Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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