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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$2,530,419 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧39.4-40.0%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧39.4-41.0%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸35.1-36.1%$1,076,696$0

39.8%

0.3%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧34.2-35.0%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧33.8-35.5%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸35.1-36.1%$1,076,696$0

34.6%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-8.0%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-8.7%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.8-9.8%$1,076,696$0

7.4%

-0.1%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.3%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$1,076,696$0

3.1%

0.1%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.5%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-4.9%$1,076,696$0

2.2%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.4%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$1,076,696$0

2.0%

-0.1%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.5%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$366,436$64,486

1.1%

1.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.5%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,076,696$0

1.0%

-0.5%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.0%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,076,696$0

0.8%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.0%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,076,696$0

0.8%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,076,696$0

0.6%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,076,696$0

0.4%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,076,696$0

0.3%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$366,436$64,486

0.3%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,076,696$0

0.2%

-0.1%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,087,287$415,097
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$366,436$64,486
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,076,696$0

0.2%

+0.0%

5.3%




Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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