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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$2,026,083 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧42.4-43.1%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.4-44.3%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$1,111,877$55,360

40.8%

0.3%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧28.6-29.0%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧28.6-29.0%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸34.0-35.0%$1,111,877$55,360

29.7%

0.6%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-6.1%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-6.1%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,111,877$55,360

5.4%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-4.5%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.5%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$1,111,877$55,360

4.1%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,111,877$55,360

3.0%

0.1%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,111,877$55,360

2.1%

-0.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.4%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-1.4%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,111,877$55,360

1.5%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.9%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,111,877$55,360

1.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.5%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,111,877$55,360

1.2%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.0%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,111,877$55,360

1.2%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.8%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,111,877$55,360

0.9%

-0.2%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,111,877$55,360

0.6%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.1%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$293,394$62,189

0.6%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,111,877$55,360

0.5%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-99.0%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$293,394$62,189
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,111,877$55,360

0.4%

-0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$620,812$234,988
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$293,394$62,189

0.4%

+0.0%

6.4%




Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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