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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$2,260,173 bet so far

DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧42.4-44.2%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.0-42.4%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-41.0%$1,087,152$0

43.1%

0.2%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧32.8-33.3%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧32.8-34.0%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸33.0-34.0%$1,087,152$0

33.1%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-4.5%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.7-4.8%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,087,152$0

4.0%

0.1%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.6-4.2%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-4.2%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,087,152$0

3.9%

+0.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,087,152$0

2.2%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-3.1%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.6%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,087,152$0

2.1%

0.1%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-2.4%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$312,873$49,234

1.0%

0.5%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,087,152$0

0.8%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,087,152$0

0.7%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.0%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,087,152$0

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,087,152$0

0.6%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$312,873$49,234

0.5%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,087,152$0

0.5%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,087,152$0

0.5%

+0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,087,152$0

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$860,112$258,584
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$312,873$49,234
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,087,152$0

0.2%

+0.0%

5.9%




Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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