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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$1,578,823 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧43.5-44.6%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧40.6-44.3%$173,440$57,137
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$510,898$0

43.8%

0.7%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧8.3-9.5%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-9.5%$173,440$57,137
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$510,898$0

8.7%

0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-10.2%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.7-10.4%$173,440$57,137
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$510,898$0

8.3%

0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-6.5%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-6.7%$173,440$57,137
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$510,898$0

5.8%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-3.3%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-3.1%$173,440$57,137
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$510,898$0

2.2%

-0.5%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.3%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-2.9%$173,440$57,137
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$510,898$0

1.9%

-0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.8%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$173,440$57,137
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$510,898$0

1.1%

-0.1%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$173,440$57,137

0.9%

0.5%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.2%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$173,440$57,137
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$510,898$0

0.8%

-0.0%
Yang details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$894,485$239,317
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$173,440$57,137

0.6%

0.4%

25.8%




Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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