Odds update every minute | Last updated: 6:53PM EDT on Apr 26, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$142,634,981 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎44.0-45.0%$116,461,101
Betfair 🇬🇧42.7-43.1%$18,737,819
PredictIt 🇺🇸50.7-52.7%$4,546,728
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,889,333

45.7%

+0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎42.0-43.0%$116,461,101
Betfair 🇬🇧43.9-44.2%$18,737,819
PredictIt 🇺🇸42.9-43.9%$4,546,728
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,889,333

43.5%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.4%$116,461,101
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.4%$18,737,819
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.6%$2,889,333

3.6%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-4.0%$116,461,101
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$18,737,819
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$2,889,333

3.0%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.4%$116,461,101
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,737,819
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$4,546,728
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$2,889,333

1.9%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$116,461,101
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,737,819
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$2,889,333

1.0%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$116,461,101
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,737,819
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$2,889,333

0.9%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$116,461,101
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$18,737,819
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,546,728
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,889,333

0.7%

+0.0%
Electoral College (estimate: 276-262. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 6:32PM EDT on Apr 26, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$21,042,415 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.0-22.0%$16,871,762
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$3,439,151
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-20.0%$659,677
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-20.8%$75,282

20.7%

0.1%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.0-10.0%$16,871,762
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$3,439,151
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.4%$659,677
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-8.3%$75,282

9.3%

1.8%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-6.3%$16,871,762
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.1%$659,677
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-8.0%$75,282

6.6%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.0-4.0%$16,871,762
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-14.0%$3,439,151
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-6.3%$659,677
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-6.9%$75,282

6.5%

-4.8%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.3-5.0%$16,871,762
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-6.9%$659,677
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.8-7.4%$75,282

5.6%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$16,871,762
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,439,151
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$659,677
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.0-5.4%$75,282

4.9%

0.2%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.0%$16,871,762
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$3,439,151
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.9%$659,677
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.3%$75,282

3.4%

0.2%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.6%$16,871,762
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,439,151
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$659,677

2.9%

-0.0%

40.2%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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