Odds update every minute | Last updated: 8:11PM EDT on Apr 26, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$142,829,959 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎44.0-45.0%$116,655,293
Betfair 🇬🇧42.7-43.1%$18,738,603
PredictIt 🇺🇸50.7-52.7%$4,546,730
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,889,333

45.7%

+0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎43.0-44.0%$116,655,293
Betfair 🇬🇧43.9-44.2%$18,738,603
PredictIt 🇺🇸42.9-43.9%$4,546,730
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,889,333

43.7%

0.3%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-4.4%$116,655,293
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.4%$18,738,603
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.6%$2,889,333

3.5%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-4.0%$116,655,293
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$18,738,603
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$2,889,333

3.0%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.3%$116,655,293
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,738,603
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$4,546,730
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$2,889,333

1.9%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$116,655,293
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,738,603
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$2,889,333

1.0%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$116,655,293
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,738,603
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$2,889,333

0.9%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$116,655,293
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$18,738,603
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,546,730
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,889,333

0.7%

-0.0%
Electoral College (estimate: 276-262. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 7:33PM EDT on Apr 26, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$21,089,833 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.0-22.0%$16,915,699
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$3,438,991
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-20.0%$659,864
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-20.8%$75,282

20.7%

0.1%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.0-10.0%$16,915,699
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$3,438,991
Betfair 🇬🇧6.9-8.3%$659,864
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-9.5%$75,282

9.6%

2.1%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-6.3%$16,915,699
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.1%$659,864
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-8.0%$75,282

6.6%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-3.5%$16,915,699
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$3,438,991
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-6.1%$659,864
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-6.7%$75,282

5.9%

-5.4%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.3-5.0%$16,915,699
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-6.9%$659,864
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.8-7.4%$75,282

5.6%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$16,915,699
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$3,438,991
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$659,864
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.0-5.4%$75,282

4.7%

0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.0%$16,915,699
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$3,438,991
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.9%$659,864
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.3%$75,282

3.4%

0.2%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.6%$16,915,699
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,438,991
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$659,864

2.9%

-0.0%

40.6%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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