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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$3,461,216 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧72.5-74.1%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧75.8-76.3%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸69.8-70.7%$539,147$6,675

73.4%

2.3%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.1-6.1%$262,622$46,492

5.6%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-5.6%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-5.7%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.1-13.0%$539,147$6,675

4.5%

-0.7%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.6-4.5%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-4.2%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.5-7.4%$539,147$6,675

4.1%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-2.4%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.7%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.7%$539,147$6,675

1.5%

0.5%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-2.0%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.1%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$539,147$6,675

1.1%

-0.7%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$262,622$46,492

1.0%

0.9%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.1%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$539,147$6,675

0.7%

0.4%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$539,147$6,675

0.3%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$539,147$6,675

0.1%

-0.0%
Yang details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$2,659,447$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$262,622$46,492

0.1%

+0.0%

7.8%
GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$4,773,875 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧64.9-65.8%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧67.9-70.3%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.0-53.9%$1,088,676$0

65.5%

1.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧23.8-24.4%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-25.6%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸30.7-32.5%$1,088,676$0

24.1%

-0.8%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.9%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-3.1%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,088,676$0

2.3%

0.2%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.5%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.5-7.4%$1,088,676$0

2.1%

-0.3%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,088,676$0

1.0%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$3,222,467$1,968,561

0.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.7%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,676$0

0.9%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,676$0

0.7%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,088,676$0

0.6%

-0.7%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,676$0

0.4%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.5%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,676$0

0.3%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,676$0

0.2%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,676$0

0.1%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820

0.1%

+0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,676$0

0.1%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$462,732$91,820

0.1%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-3.3%$3,222,467$1,968,561
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,676$0

0.0%

+0.0%

0.8%
US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$6,014,264 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧37.3-37.6%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧39.4-39.7%$1,497,321$106,756
PredictIt 🇺🇸41.1-42.1%$91,713$17,568

37.6%

0.3%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧26.0-26.7%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.6-27.8%$1,497,321$106,756
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.7-31.6%$91,713$17,568

26.4%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧13.9-14.7%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.5-15.2%$1,497,321$106,756
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.9-24.9%$91,713$17,568

14.4%

-0.8%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.0-5.3%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-5.0%$1,497,321$106,756

5.1%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.1%$1,497,321$106,756
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.8%$91,713$17,568

1.8%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.0%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$1,497,321$106,756

1.8%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,497,321$106,756

1.8%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.0%$1,497,321$106,756

1.3%

-0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.8%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.9%$1,497,321$106,756

1.0%

0.4%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$1,497,321$106,756

0.7%

0.2%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$4,425,231$1,415,855

0.7%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.9%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,497,321$106,756

0.4%

0.4%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,497,321$106,756

0.4%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,497,321$106,756

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,497,321$106,756

0.2%

-0.3%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$1,497,321$106,756

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,415,855
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%

5.0%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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