Odds update every minute | Last updated: 3:34AM EST on Feb 22, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$19,632,922 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧69.0-69.4%$8,657,179
PredictIt 🇺🇸74.0-75.0%$5,493,535
Polymarket 🌎76.0-78.0%$4,558,103
Smarkets 🇬🇧69.9-74.1%$924,105

72.6%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-7.1%$8,657,179
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$5,493,535
Polymarket 🌎10.0-12.0%$4,558,103
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-8.0%$924,105

9.9%

0.6%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-6.9%$8,657,179
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$5,493,535
Polymarket 🌎2.0-4.0%$4,558,103
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-7.7%$924,105

6.0%

0.1%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$8,657,179
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,493,535
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$924,105

1.9%

-0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$8,657,179
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,493,535
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.2%$924,105

0.8%

0.2%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$8,657,179
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$924,105

0.5%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$8,657,179
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,493,535
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$924,105

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$8,657,179
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$924,105

0.1%

+0.0%

8.1%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$27,266,604 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸88.0-89.0%$12,806,821
Betfair 🇬🇧89.3-90.1%$7,278,206
Polymarket 🌎86.8-88.7%$6,247,791
Smarkets 🇬🇧90.1-92.6%$933,811

88.7%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$12,806,821
Betfair 🇬🇧4.8-5.0%$7,278,206
Polymarket 🌎3.8-5.7%$6,247,791
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$933,811

5.6%

0.7%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$12,806,821
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$7,278,206
Polymarket 🌎6.6-8.5%$6,247,791
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$933,811

2.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.8%$7,278,206
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.4%

+0.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,806,821
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.4%$7,278,206
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.3%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,806,821
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$7,278,206
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$933,811

0.2%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,806,821
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$7,278,206
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$933,811

0.1%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.1%

+0.0%

2.0%

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$68,274,396 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎54.0-56.0%$47,675,792
Betfair 🇬🇧43.1-43.5%$14,024,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$4,037,716
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.1-44.3%$2,536,258

51.7%

-0.0%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎31.0-33.0%$47,675,792
Betfair 🇬🇧27.8-28.2%$14,024,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-41.0%$4,037,716
Smarkets 🇬🇧28.2-29.4%$2,536,258

31.6%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-6.0%$47,675,792
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-7.4%$14,024,630
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-7.1%$2,536,258

5.6%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-3.0%$47,675,792
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-4.8%$14,024,630
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.8%$2,536,258

2.7%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-2.0%$47,675,792
Betfair 🇬🇧3.6-3.7%$14,024,630
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$4,037,716
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.0%$2,536,258

1.9%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-2.0%$47,675,792
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.4%$14,024,630
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.9%$2,536,258

1.6%

0.5%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-1.0%$47,675,792
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.6%$14,024,630
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.6%$2,536,258

1.3%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$47,675,792
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$14,024,630
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$2,536,258

0.2%

+0.0%

3.6%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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