Odds update every minute | Last updated: 4:08AM EDT on May 16, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$155,496,826 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎49.0-50.0%$126,852,856
Betfair 🇬🇧51.5-51.8%$20,913,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸47.6-48.5%$4,702,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧50.5-51.5%$3,030,708

50.1%

0.9%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎41.0-42.0%$126,852,856
Betfair 🇬🇧38.2-38.5%$20,913,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸47.6-48.5%$4,702,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧38.2-40.0%$3,030,708

41.7%

-0.4%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.2%$126,852,856
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$20,913,728
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$3,030,708

2.3%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-3.2%$126,852,856
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-1.8%$20,913,728
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$3,030,708

2.1%

-0.3%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.2%$126,852,856
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$20,913,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.9%$4,702,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.4%$3,030,708

1.5%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$126,852,856
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$20,913,728
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$3,030,708

0.8%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$126,852,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.0%$20,913,728
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$3,030,708

0.7%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-1.1%$126,852,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$20,913,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$4,702,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$3,030,708

0.7%

0.2%

0.1%
Electoral College (estimate: 270-268. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 4:02AM EDT on May 16, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$26,991,208 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$21,916,881
PredictIt 🇺🇸20.0-21.0%$4,214,517
Betfair 🇬🇧14.3-15.6%$780,231
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.2-16.7%$83,894

17.0%

-0.8%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎11.9-12.9%$21,916,881
Betfair 🇬🇧13.2-13.9%$780,231
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.2-15.2%$83,894

13.2%

-0.3%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$21,916,881
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$4,214,517
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-5.4%$780,231
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.9%$83,894

6.4%

-0.1%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.7-3.9%$21,916,881
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.0%$780,231
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-5.4%$83,894

4.4%

-0.3%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-2.2%$21,916,881
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$4,214,517
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$780,231
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.5%$83,894

2.7%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-3.4%$21,916,881
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$4,214,517
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$780,231
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.6%$83,894

2.4%

-0.2%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-3.6%$21,916,881
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$780,231

2.2%

+0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.9%$21,916,881
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,214,517
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.4%$780,231

2.0%

0.1%

49.7%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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