Odds update every minute | Last updated: 3:28AM EDT on Jul 27, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$484,456,020 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎58.0-59.0%$398,379,079
Betfair 🇬🇧58.3-58.6%$50,231,400
PredictIt 🇺🇸51.2-52.1%$30,564,053
Smarkets 🇬🇧57.9-58.3%$5,302,260

56.7%

-1.6%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎39.3-39.4%$398,379,079
Betfair 🇬🇧38.6-39.2%$50,231,400
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.4-47.3%$30,564,053
Smarkets 🇬🇧38.6-39.8%$5,302,260

41.1%

2.5%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$398,379,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$50,231,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$5,302,260

0.7%

-1.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$398,379,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$50,231,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$5,302,260

0.6%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$398,379,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$50,231,400
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$30,564,053
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$5,302,260

0.4%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.2%$398,379,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$50,231,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$5,302,260

0.3%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$398,379,079
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$50,231,400
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$30,564,053
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$5,302,260

0.1%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$50,231,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$5,302,260

0.1%

+0.0%

0.2%
Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 241-297. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 2:57AM EDT on Jul 27, 2024
Over $1 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
DEM VP NomineeDemocrat Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$45,003,645 bet so far
Kelly details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎35.0-35.9%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸34.6-35.6%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧36.0-37.0%$502,697

35.7%

-4.8%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎26.0-34.0%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.8-29.8%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧25.0-27.0%$502,697

28.4%

5.7%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.0-15.0%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.5-13.5%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧13.5-13.9%$502,697

13.7%

1.2%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-7.4%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.7-9.6%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-9.1%$502,697

8.1%

0.5%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-5.6%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.7-9.6%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-6.9%$502,697

6.8%

0.8%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.5%$32,921,779
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.5%$502,697

1.7%

-0.5%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-1.1%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-3.8%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.8%$502,697

1.6%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.7%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$502,697

0.8%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.8%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.4%$502,697

0.5%

+0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.4%$32,921,779

0.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.2%$32,921,779
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,609,654
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$502,697

0.2%

-0.1%

2.0%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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