Odds update every minute | Last updated: 1:01AM EDT on Jul 15, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$321,335,011 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎70.0-71.0%$257,260,203
Betfair 🇬🇧67.6-68.0%$36,581,227
PredictIt 🇺🇸59.5-60.4%$23,268,320
Smarkets 🇬🇧68.0-69.0%$4,229,663

66.7%

2.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$257,260,203
Betfair 🇬🇧14.7-15.2%$36,581,227
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.2-24.0%$23,268,320
Smarkets 🇬🇧14.3-15.2%$4,229,663

17.6%

1.8%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-5.5%$257,260,203
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-6.7%$36,581,227
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.8-10.7%$23,268,320
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-7.4%$4,229,663

7.3%

-2.7%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.7%$257,260,203
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$36,581,227
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-3.3%$4,229,663

2.6%

-0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.1%$257,260,203
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.6%$36,581,227
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.6-4.4%$23,268,320
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$4,229,663

2.5%

-0.6%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.6%$257,260,203
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.1%$36,581,227
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$4,229,663

1.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$257,260,203
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$36,581,227
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.1%$4,229,663

0.7%

-0.4%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$257,260,203
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$36,581,227
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.8%$23,268,320
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$4,229,663

0.6%

+0.0%

0.9%

Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 226-312. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 12:31AM EDT on Jul 15, 2024
Over $1 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$112,771,033 bet so far

Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎29.9-31.9%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸39.8-40.7%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧42.7-49.5%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧39.0-47.3%$155,141

40.1%

9.0%
Burgum details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎39.5-43.1%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.9-25.4%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧29.4-31.7%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧26.8-31.2%$155,141

31.2%

7.9%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎10.5-12.6%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.5-9.3%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧5.7-10.4%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.9-10.0%$155,141

9.0%

-4.0%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.9-4.0%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.4-5.1%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-6.3%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.3-6.5%$155,141

4.4%

-4.6%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-2.6%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.4-4.2%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-7.1%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-7.5%$155,141

2.7%

-0.3%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-3.0%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.4-5.1%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-3.6%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.6%$155,141

2.7%

-1.3%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.1%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.4-4.2%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-2.4%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.5%$155,141

2.4%

-0.4%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-1.3%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.1-5.9%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-4.8%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.5%$155,141

2.0%

0.5%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-2.5%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.8-1.7%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-9.5%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-2.3%$155,141

1.4%

0.4%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.5%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.8-1.7%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$1,431,002
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.9%$155,141

0.9%

-1.2%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.6%$80,657,644
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.8-1.7%$30,529,796
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,431,002

0.8%

-0.1%

2.4%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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