Odds update every minute | Last updated: 5:15AM EDT on May 12, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$7,132,628 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸56.0-57.0%$4,425,748
Polymarket 🌎52.5-53.5%$2,355,980
PredictIt 🇺🇸57.7-59.7%$296,960
Betfair 🇬🇧48.6-50.4%$48,580
Smarkets 🇬🇧45.4-50.7%$5,360

53.2%

-0.1%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸43.0-44.0%$4,425,748
Polymarket 🌎46.5-47.5%$2,355,980
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.8-41.8%$296,960
Betfair 🇬🇧49.6-51.4%$48,580
Smarkets 🇬🇧49.9-53.9%$5,360

46.8%

0.1%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current Senate is 47-53
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 5:06AM EDT on May 12, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$599,951,125 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.5-18.6%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧17.5-18.2%$1,194,443
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-25.0%$1,119,246
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.5-18.5%$215,685

19.2%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.6-16.7%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧18.2-18.5%$1,194,443
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$1,119,246
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.5-19.2%$215,685

18.0%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.3-13.4%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧9.5-10.0%$1,194,443
PredictIt 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$1,119,246

15.0%

-0.5%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.4%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.8-4.9%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-5.4%$1,194,443
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,119,246
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.7%$215,685

6.0%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.4%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.5-5.1%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$1,194,443
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$1,119,246
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$215,685

4.1%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.8%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-3.9%$215,685

3.6%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.0%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$1,194,443
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,119,246
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$215,685

3.0%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.6-4.9%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.0%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$215,685

2.9%

0.6%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.2%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.4%$1,194,443
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,119,246
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$215,685

2.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-3.1%$215,685

2.6%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.8%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$1,194,443
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,119,246
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$215,685

1.7%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.9-1.0%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.8%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.6%$215,685

1.6%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$215,685

0.9%

-0.2%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$215,685

0.5%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$215,685

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$215,685

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$576,941,176
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$20,484,958
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$215,685

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$215,685

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$215,685

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,685

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,685

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,685

0.1%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,685

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,194,443
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,685

0.1%

-0.0%

15.7%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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