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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$10,916,959 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸61.0-62.0%$7,678,574
Polymarket 🌎67.0-68.0%$3,238,970

64.5%

-1.2%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸38.0-39.0%$7,678,574
Polymarket 🌎32.0-33.0%$3,238,970

35.5%

1.2%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$360,071 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$209,897
Betfair 🇬🇧54.9-55.6%$148,255
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.0-56.5%$1,919

54.7%

-0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-47.0%$209,897
Betfair 🇬🇧42.4-43.9%$148,255
Smarkets 🇬🇧41.7-45.0%$1,919

44.2%

-0.2%

1.2%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$203,466,553 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎26.0-27.0%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧25.0-25.6%$895,385
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$680,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.0-25.6%$157,768

26.6%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.0-19.0%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$895,385
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$680,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$157,768

19.4%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.6-9.7%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧7.4-7.7%$895,385
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$680,271

9.0%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.0-7.0%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-6.5%$895,385
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$680,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-8.3%$157,768

6.6%

-0.3%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.3-3.6%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.8%$895,385
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$680,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$157,768

3.2%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$895,385
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$680,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$157,768

2.7%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.1%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$895,385
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$680,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$157,768

2.6%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$157,768

1.9%

-0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.3%$895,385
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$680,271
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$157,768

1.9%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.2%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$157,768

1.6%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.6%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-1.8%$157,768

1.6%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.2%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$157,768

1.1%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.4%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$157,768

0.8%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.9%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$157,768

0.7%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$157,768

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$157,768

0.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$196,613,417
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,119,712
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.4%$157,768

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$157,768

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$157,768

0.3%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$157,768

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$157,768

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$157,768

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$157,768

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$895,385
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$157,768

0.1%

-0.0%

17.2%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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