Odds update every minute | Last updated: 6:00AM EDT on May 20, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$157,684,575 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎50.5-51.5%$128,659,464
Betfair 🇬🇧51.8-52.1%$21,221,641
PredictIt 🇺🇸48.8-49.8%$4,740,680
Smarkets 🇬🇧51.0-52.1%$3,061,189

50.9%

+0.0%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎40.6-41.6%$128,659,464
Betfair 🇬🇧37.6-37.9%$21,221,641
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.8-46.8%$4,740,680
Smarkets 🇬🇧37.6-38.5%$3,061,189

40.8%

0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$128,659,464
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$21,221,641
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$3,061,189

2.3%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-3.0%$128,659,464
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$21,221,641
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$3,061,189

2.1%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.3%$128,659,464
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.2%$21,221,641
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$4,740,680
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$3,061,189

1.6%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$128,659,464
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$21,221,641
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$3,061,189

1.0%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$128,659,464
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$21,221,641
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.0%$3,061,189

0.6%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.8%$128,659,464
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$21,221,641
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,740,680
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$3,061,189

0.6%

-0.0%
Electoral College (estimate: 270-268. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 5:39AM EDT on May 20, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$28,384,203 bet so far

TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎19.0-21.0%$23,221,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$4,279,231
Betfair 🇬🇧15.6-16.1%$799,347
Smarkets 🇬🇧14.3-17.2%$83,894

18.8%

0.5%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎10.9-12.4%$23,221,731
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-13.2%$799,347
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.9-14.3%$83,894

12.5%

-0.2%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$23,221,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$4,279,231
Betfair 🇬🇧4.8-5.4%$799,347
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-5.9%$83,894

6.3%

0.2%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.1-3.8%$23,221,731
Betfair 🇬🇧3.8-4.2%$799,347
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-4.8%$83,894

4.0%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.4-5.8%$23,221,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$4,279,231
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.5%$799,347
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.9%$83,894

3.6%

-0.2%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-3.4%$23,221,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,279,231
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-3.3%$799,347
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-3.7%$83,894

3.0%

0.1%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-1.3%$23,221,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,279,231
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$799,347

2.0%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$23,221,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,279,231
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$799,347
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.0%$83,894

1.5%

0.1%

48.3%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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