Odds update every minute | Last updated: 12:48PM EDT on Mar 21, 2023

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$2,443,700 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧67.1-68.0%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧68.0-71.4%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸66.0-67.0%$551,465$31,509

67.7%

-0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-8.0%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-8.0%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.7-8.6%$551,465$31,509

7.1%

0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-7.4%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-7.7%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.5-12.4%$551,465$31,509

6.2%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.8%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-4.2%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.8-4.8%$551,465$31,509

3.5%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.8%$551,465$31,509

2.3%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-2.0%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-2.0%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.9%$551,465$31,509

1.4%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.9%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$551,465$31,509

0.7%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$220,578$42,405
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.9%$551,465$31,509

0.5%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$220,578$42,405

0.4%

+0.0%
Yang details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,671,689$575,459
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$220,578$42,405

0.1%

+0.0%

10.2%
GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$3,553,787 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧50.5-51.0%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧50.8-51.8%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸36.2-37.1%$1,104,781$19,506

50.6%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧33.8-35.5%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧34.0-36.0%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-40.9%$1,104,781$19,506

34.7%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.6%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.1-3.9%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.7-7.6%$1,104,781$19,506

3.4%

-0.1%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.6%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.8-4.8%$1,104,781$19,506

2.1%

-0.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.8-5.7%$1,104,781$19,506

1.9%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.4%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.8%$1,104,781$19,506

1.7%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$1,104,781$19,506

0.8%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.6%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$1,104,781$19,506

0.5%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.0%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010

0.5%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.5%

+0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.7%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.3%

0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.3%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.4%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.3%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.4%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010

0.2%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$2,057,597$1,094,349
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$391,409$53,010
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,104,781$19,506

0.1%

-0.0%

1.4%
US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$4,716,799 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧29.0-29.9%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧29.4-31.8%$1,410,695$65,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.6-41.6%$77,217$7,755

29.6%

+0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧22.2-23.8%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.3-24.4%$1,410,695$65,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.8-25.7%$77,217$7,755

23.0%

1.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧21.3-21.7%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.8-22.7%$1,410,695$65,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.7-28.7%$77,217$7,755

21.6%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.6%$1,410,695$65,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-5.9%$77,217$7,755

3.2%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$1,410,695$65,362

2.6%

0.5%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.6%$1,410,695$65,362

2.2%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.3%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$1,410,695$65,362

1.8%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.0%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,410,695$65,362

1.8%

0.1%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.3%$1,410,695$65,362

1.0%

-0.4%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.2%$1,410,695$65,362

0.9%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,410,695$65,362

0.5%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,410,695$65,362

0.3%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-24.4%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

0.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.2%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.1%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.1%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.1%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.1%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-5.0%$3,228,887$770,028
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,410,695$65,362

0.0%

-0.2%

10.2%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
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"Radical"
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"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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