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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

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Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$3,461,216 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧72.5-74.1%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧75.8-76.3%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸69.8-70.7%$539,147$6,675

73.4%

1.7%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.1-6.1%$262,622$46,492

5.6%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-4.8%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-5.3%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.1-13.0%$539,147$6,675

4.1%

-1.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.6-4.5%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-4.2%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.5-7.4%$539,147$6,675

4.1%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-2.4%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.7%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.7%$539,147$6,675

1.5%

0.5%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-2.0%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.1%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$539,147$6,675

1.1%

-0.7%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$262,622$46,492

1.0%

0.9%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.1%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$539,147$6,675

0.7%

0.4%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$539,147$6,675

0.3%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$262,622$46,492
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$539,147$6,675

0.1%

-0.0%
Yang details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$2,659,709$1,142,884
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$262,622$46,492

0.1%

-0.0%

8.2%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$4,773,054 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧64.9-65.8%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧67.9-70.3%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.0-53.9%$1,088,691$0

65.5%

1.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧23.8-24.4%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-25.6%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸30.7-32.5%$1,088,691$0

24.1%

-0.8%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.9%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-3.1%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,088,691$0

2.3%

0.2%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.5%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.5-7.4%$1,088,691$0

2.1%

-0.3%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,088,691$0

1.0%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$3,221,631$1,967,725

0.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.7%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,691$0

0.9%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,691$0

0.7%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,088,691$0

0.6%

-0.7%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,691$0

0.4%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.5%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,691$0

0.3%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,691$0

0.2%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,691$0

0.1%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820

0.1%

+0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,691$0

0.1%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$462,732$91,820

0.1%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-3.3%$3,221,631$1,967,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$462,732$91,820
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,088,691$0

0.0%

+0.0%

0.8%

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$6,014,265 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧37.3-37.6%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧39.4-39.7%$1,497,321$106,756
PredictIt 🇺🇸41.1-42.1%$91,713$17,569

37.6%

0.3%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧26.0-26.7%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.6-27.8%$1,497,321$106,756
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.7-31.6%$91,713$17,569

26.4%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧13.9-14.7%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.5-15.2%$1,497,321$106,756
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.9-24.9%$91,713$17,569

14.4%

-0.8%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.0-5.3%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-5.0%$1,497,321$106,756

5.1%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.1%$1,497,321$106,756
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.8%$91,713$17,569

1.8%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.0%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$1,497,321$106,756

1.8%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,497,321$106,756

1.8%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.0%$1,497,321$106,756

1.3%

0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.8%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.9%$1,497,321$106,756

1.0%

0.4%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$1,497,321$106,756

0.7%

0.2%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$4,425,231$1,416,243

0.7%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.9%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,497,321$106,756

0.4%

0.4%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,497,321$106,756

0.4%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,497,321$106,756

0.3%

-0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$1,497,321$106,756

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,497,321$106,756

0.2%

0.1%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,425,231$1,416,243
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,497,321$106,756

0.1%

-0.0%

5.1%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
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"Radical"
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"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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