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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024
Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$17,653,777 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
FTX 🌎41.1-42.7%$14,956,302$657,001
Betfair 🇬🇧20.4-20.8%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.4-20.8%$983,250$256,094
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$67,414$14,028

31.1%

-0.8%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧21.3-23.3%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-22.7%$983,250$256,094
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$67,414$14,028

22.5%

0.6%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-13.2%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.8-13.5%$983,250$256,094
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$67,414$14,028

13.1%

0.6%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-5.9%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.7-5.9%$983,250$256,094
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$67,414$14,028

5.8%

0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.7-5.4%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.0-5.0%$983,250$256,094

4.5%

-0.3%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-4.2%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.2%$983,250$256,094

3.8%

0.2%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.7%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.1-3.7%$983,250$256,094

3.2%

-0.4%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-3.1%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$983,250$256,094

2.8%

0.5%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.2%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$983,250$256,094

1.9%

-0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$983,250$256,094

1.6%

0.1%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.8%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-1.7%$983,250$256,094

1.5%

0.2%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.2%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$983,250$256,094

1.0%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$983,250$256,094

0.7%

-0.1%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$983,250$256,094

0.7%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$983,250$256,094

0.6%

-0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$983,250$256,094

0.6%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.0%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$983,250$256,094

0.5%

0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$983,250$256,094

0.5%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$983,250$256,094

0.4%

-0.2%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$983,250$256,094

0.3%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$983,250$256,094

0.3%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,646,402$419,930
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$983,250$256,094

0.2%

+0.0%

2.3%




Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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