Odds update every minute | Last updated: 1:19AM EDT on Jul 15, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$321,341,885 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎70.0-71.0%$257,287,443
Betfair 🇬🇧67.6-68.0%$36,580,753
PredictIt 🇺🇸59.2-60.1%$23,268,449
Smarkets 🇬🇧68.0-69.0%$4,229,663

66.6%

0.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$257,287,443
Betfair 🇬🇧14.7-15.6%$36,580,753
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.4-24.2%$23,268,449
Smarkets 🇬🇧14.3-15.2%$4,229,663

17.7%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-5.3%$257,287,443
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-6.7%$36,580,753
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.9-10.8%$23,268,449
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-7.4%$4,229,663

7.3%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.7%$257,287,443
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$36,580,753
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-3.3%$4,229,663

2.6%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.1%$257,287,443
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.6%$36,580,753
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.6-4.5%$23,268,449
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$4,229,663

2.5%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.6%$257,287,443
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.1%$36,580,753
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$4,229,663

1.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$257,287,443
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$36,580,753
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.1%$4,229,663

0.7%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$257,287,443
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$36,580,753
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.8%$23,268,449
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$4,229,663

0.6%

+0.0%

0.9%




Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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