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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$398,327 bet so far

Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸41.0-42.0%$218,161
Betfair 🇬🇧30.3-32.3%$160,964
Smarkets 🇬🇧30.8-33.3%$19,202

36.9%

1.0%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$218,161
Betfair 🇬🇧29.4-31.3%$160,964
Smarkets 🇬🇧29.4-31.3%$19,202

31.0%

0.5%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$218,161
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-5.6%$160,964
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.5%$19,202

6.1%

-0.6%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$218,161
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-3.1%$160,964
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$19,202

2.8%

-0.1%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$218,161
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-4.0%$160,964
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-3.3%$19,202

2.2%

-0.1%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$218,161
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.3%$160,964
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.7%$19,202

1.9%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$218,161
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$160,964

1.8%

-0.0%
Yang details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$160,964
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.4%$19,202

1.0%

0.2%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$160,964
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$19,202

0.9%

+0.0%

15.4%

Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$14,668,468 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
FTX 🌎28.3-28.5%$13,890,852
Betfair 🇬🇧16.9-17.5%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.9-17.9%$160,743
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$6,795

27.8%

-1.1%
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧19.6-20.4%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.0-20.8%$160,743
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$6,795

20.2%

0.7%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧14.3-14.7%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.9-15.2%$160,743
PredictIt 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$6,795

14.5%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧6.9-7.4%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-7.4%$160,743
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$6,795

7.2%

-0.2%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.3%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.3-4.8%$160,743

4.8%

-0.6%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-4.8%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$160,743

4.7%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.6%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$160,743

2.4%

0.1%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.1%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-1.8%$160,743

1.7%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-1.8%$160,743

1.7%

-0.1%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$160,743

1.5%

0.3%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$160,743

1.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$160,743

0.9%

-0.1%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.4%$160,743

0.8%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$160,743

0.7%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$160,743

0.7%

-0.1%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$160,743

0.7%

-0.2%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$160,743

0.6%

0.2%
Obama details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.8%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$160,743

0.5%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.4%$160,743

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$160,743

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$610,078
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$160,743

0.2%

+0.0%

6.5%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$866,812 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸38.0-38.9%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧33.6-34.0%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧33.6-34.7%$32,706

37.7%

2.0%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸18.5-19.4%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧14.3-16.7%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧14.3-15.6%$32,706

18.4%

-1.0%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.5-7.4%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧10.6-10.9%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.6-11.1%$32,706

7.6%

-0.1%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.1%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-7.1%$32,706

4.6%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-4.0%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-4.2%$32,706

4.0%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.3%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.3%$32,706

4.0%

-0.8%
TimScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$32,706

3.7%

-0.1%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-4.0%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-4.0%$32,706

3.3%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.8%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.6%$32,706

3.2%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.9%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$32,706

3.1%

-0.1%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.8%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.1%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$32,706

2.4%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.8%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-2.9%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.0%$32,706

2.2%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.8%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.3%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.4%$32,706

2.1%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.8%$724,632
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-20.0%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$32,706

2.0%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-1.8%$32,706

1.2%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$109,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$32,706

0.9%

0.1%

Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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