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By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

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Early Voting Comparison to 2012
By Maxim Lott

Several states have lots of early voting, and the party affiliation of people who voted is public. I have not seen any comprehensive analysis of early voting changes and the reporting I have seen often distorts things. So I put together the table below, showing how party affiliation of early-voters this year changed compared to early-voters in 2012. Not betting odds but I find useful:

Change in party shares of early votes from 2012 to 2016
Updated Nov 7, 5:35pm ET
STATEDEM ChangeGOP ChangeIND Change
Colorado-0.17%-1.77% 1.95%
Florida-3.15%-0.52% 3.66%
Iowa-0.24% 2.70%-2.46%
Nevada-1.69%-0.78% 2.47%
North Carolina-6.30% 0.89% 5.41%

Raw data used to compute the above
State2012 DEM %2012 GOP %2012 IND %2012 Early Votes2016 DEM %2016 GOP %2016 IND %2016 DEM Early Votes2016 GOP Early Votes2016 IND Early Votes2016 Early Votes
Colorado35%37%28%1,700,00034.82%35.23%29.94%645,020652,380554,6291,852,029
Florida43%39%18%4,500,00039.58%39.45%20.97%2,560,4432,472,4311,391,7216,424,595
Iowa42%32%26%640,00041.76%34.70%23.54%247,785205,904139,698593,387
Nevada43.8%36.96%19.24%705,05142.11%36.18%21.71%324,239278,611167,148769,998
North Carolina48%31%21%2,800,00041.67%31.89%26.41%1,298,3689993,114822,3223,113,804

Sources
State2012 sources2016 sources
ColoradoAP http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20121105/us-early-voting-update/http://gazette.com/colorado-republicans-erase-deficit-in-early-voting-sprint-with-dems-to-election-day/article/1589516
FloridaAP http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20121105/us-early-voting-update/https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:04ob1hSCp0sJ:https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/
IowaAP http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20121105/us-early-voting-update/https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf
Nevadahttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Z1HIVl789qUJ:ssbcinv.nv.gov/sos/home/showdocument%3Fid%3D2666+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ushttp://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543 and http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555 Note: Initial numbers posted here for NV did not include mail-in ballots. They now do.
North CarolinaAP http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20121105/us-early-voting-update/http://dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016_Stats.pdf

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