Election Betting Odds by Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Election Betting Odds

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, and PredictIt | How People Bet

Hover over underlined titles for amount bet. Odds for the Presidential winner are averaged between FTX.com and Betfair. Nomination odds are from Betfair.

Next PresidentPresidential Winner 2020 $119,813,545 bet so far
	53.7% -0.1%
	43.5% -0.0%
	0.8% -0.0%
	0.3% +0.0%
	0.3% +0.0%
	0.2% -0.0%
	0.2% -0.0%

Electoral College (estimate: 290-248. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win

NOTE: The map may suggest a different winner than the direct betting on the left, for two main reasons:
1) The map shows the chance for any Democrat or Republican to win, not just Trump or Biden
2) Counter-intuitively, a candidate can be favored in a majority of states' electoral votes
but also not favored to win the election, if the odds are closer in their favored states,
or if certain key states statistically tend to vote together as a group.
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 10:04PM EDT on Sep 21, 2020
Over $1 million bet. Betting is from PredictIt. FTX.com and Betfair to be added if liquid state market available

Senate Control 2020From PredictIt $287,384 bet so far
	55.2% 0.4%
	44.7% -0.4%
House Control 2020From PredictIt $526,332 bet so far
	82.8% 0.8%
	17.1% -0.8%

Books we like:

"No, They Can't" By John Stossel	"Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver	"Random Walk" By Burton Malkiel	"Radical" By Maajid Nawaz	"In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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