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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$453,467 bet so far

Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸39.0-40.0%$222,975
Betfair 🇬🇧30.3-30.8%$204,627
Smarkets 🇬🇧29.8-31.3%$25,865

34.9%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸30.0-31.0%$222,975
Betfair 🇬🇧27.0-29.0%$204,627
Smarkets 🇬🇧26.7-28.6%$25,865

29.2%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$222,975
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-5.1%$204,627
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-4.8%$25,865

5.7%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$222,975
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-2.9%$204,627
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.0%$25,865

3.6%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$222,975
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-2.6%$204,627
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.2%$25,865

2.5%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$222,975
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.2%$204,627
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.4%$25,865

1.8%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$222,975
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$204,627

1.6%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$204,627
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$25,865

1.0%

+0.0%
Yang details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$204,627
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.4%$25,865

0.9%

-0.0%

18.7%

Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$14,743,332 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
FTX 🌎27.5-28.8%$13,789,568
Betfair 🇬🇧21.3-22.2%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.3-21.7%$227,427
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$13,323

27.7%

-0.4%
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧18.5-20.0%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.5-20.0%$227,427
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$13,323

19.4%

0.7%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-13.2%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.2-13.2%$227,427
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$13,323

12.8%

0.4%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-7.1%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-6.9%$227,427
PredictIt 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$13,323

6.9%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧3.8-4.5%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-4.5%$227,427

4.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-3.4%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.1-3.5%$227,427

3.0%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.9%$227,427

2.6%

-0.1%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$227,427

1.7%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.8%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$227,427

1.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.4%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.2%$227,427

1.2%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$227,427

1.1%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$227,427

1.0%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$227,427

0.8%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$227,427

0.8%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$227,427

0.7%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$227,427

0.7%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$227,427

0.7%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$227,427

0.4%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$227,427

0.3%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$227,427

0.3%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$713,015
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$227,427

0.2%

-0.0%

12.3%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$952,417 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸39.4-40.4%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧43.1-43.9%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.7-43.5%$47,675

40.7%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.3-20.2%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧11.9-13.2%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.5-13.5%$47,675

18.2%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.4-7.3%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧9.1-10.9%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧9.1-11.1%$47,675

7.6%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$47,675

4.6%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.5%$47,675

3.9%

+0.0%
TimScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.7%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.1%$47,675

3.3%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.6%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.5%$47,675

3.2%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$47,675

3.0%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.1%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$47,675

2.9%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.4%$47,675

2.3%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.1%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$47,675

2.0%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.9%$47,675

2.0%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$47,675

1.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,313
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.4%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.5%$47,675

1.9%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$47,675

0.8%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$160,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.8%$47,675

0.6%

+0.0%

1.0%


Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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